Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Belenenses vs Vitoria SC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.5Total

Belenenses28

Vitoria SC28.5

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

60% 40%

Belenenses Vitoria SC

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Belenenses 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLWLD

Vitoria SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDLWWW

Head-to-head

Belenenses 1–1–4 Vitoria SC (6 last)

Vitoria SC28-22Belenenses
Belenenses31-24Vitoria SC
Belenenses29-31Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC35-32Belenenses
Belenenses30-30Vitoria SC
Vitoria SC35-28Belenenses

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Belenenses 1459 · Vitoria SC 1493

	Belenenses	Vitoria SC
Our model	55%	45%
Market	56%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 56.5 points · Bet365 line 54.5 · +2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.5Belenenses 28 · Vitoria SC 28.5

Match keys

H2H favours Vitoria SC: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Belenenses	Vitoria SC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.1 / 29.8	29.1 / 27.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.2 / 30.2	29.8 / 25.4
Est. result	28	29

Est. total56.5

Line O/U54.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.60

X8.00

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 54.51.85

Under 54.51.85

Diff.: 2.65 · Est. total: 57.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:19 +30’	1.60	8.00	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Belenenses 1–1–4 Vitoria SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	28-22	Belenenses
25/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	31-24	Vitoria SC
03/05/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	29-31	Vitoria SC
29/03/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	35-32	Belenenses
15/02/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Belenenses	30-30	Vitoria SC
19/10/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Vitoria SC	35-28	Belenenses

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	1	1	0	46	23	3
2	AA Avanca	1	0	1	23	46	1
3	Aguas Santas	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	ABC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	AD Carvalhos	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Madeira	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	GC Santo Tirso	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Belenenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SL Benfica	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Vitoria SC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Belenenses	Vitoria SC
Madeira	30-32 L	26-28 L
AA Avanca	37-27 W	33-27 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Belenenses (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Belenenses

WLLLDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
10/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-32	L
02/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W
25/04	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	26-31	L
11/04	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	26-28	L
28/03	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-31	D
07/03	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	24-28	L
28/02	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	21-33	L
21/02	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	22-28	L
14/02	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	37-27	W

Vitoria SC

WLLLWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	32-25	W
09/05	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W
02/05	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	35-23	W
25/04	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	23-26	L
11/04	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	26-26	D
28/03	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	33-27	W
07/03	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	28-29	L
01/03	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	27-40	L
25/02	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	26-28	L
21/02	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	28-22	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Belenenses vs Vitoria SC?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Belenenses 60% · Vitoria SC 40%).

How many points are expected in Belenenses vs Vitoria SC?

The model estimates 56.5 total points (Belenenses 28 · Vitoria SC 28.5).