Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: SL Benfica vs Aguas Santas

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.5Total

SL Benfica32.4

Aguas Santas28.1

1X2

84% 16%

SL Benfica Aguas Santas

Recent form · 10 last

SL Benfica 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLWWL

Aguas Santas 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

SL Benfica 4–2 Aguas Santas (6 last)

Aguas Santas25-31SL Benfica
SL Benfica36-22Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas31-28SL Benfica
SL Benfica35-27Aguas Santas
Aguas Santas28-26SL Benfica
SL Benfica26-22Aguas Santas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SL Benfica 1526 · Aguas Santas 1436

	SL Benfica	Aguas Santas
Our model	72%	28%
Market	88%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 60.5 points · Bet365 line 60.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.5SL Benfica 32.4 · Aguas Santas 28.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SL Benfica (rating 1526 vs 1436).
SL Benfica is a clear favourite (84% market).
H2H favours SL Benfica: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SL Benfica	Aguas Santas
Points F\|A (Last 10)	32.7 / 30.9	27.8 / 33.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29 / 34	27.2 / 37.4
Est. result	32	28

Est. total60.5

Line O/U60.5

Diff.0

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.02

X18.00

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-9.5)1.85

2 (+9.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 1.9 · Est. total: 62.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.02 → 1.02	Bet365 1.02
X	18.00 → 18.00	Bet365 18.00
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:00 +48’	1.02	18.00	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SL Benfica 4–0–2 Aguas Santas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	25-31	SL Benfica
18/04/26 Portugal Cup	SL Benfica	36-22	Aguas Santas
15/04/26 Portugal Cup	Aguas Santas	31-28	SL Benfica
29/03/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	35-27	Aguas Santas
11/02/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Aguas Santas	28-26	SL Benfica
11/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	SL Benfica	26-22	Aguas Santas

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	1	1	0	46	23	3
2	AA Avanca	1	0	1	23	46	1
3	Aguas Santas	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	ABC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	AD Carvalhos	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Madeira	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	GC Santo Tirso	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Belenenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SL Benfica	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Vitoria SC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SL Benfica	Aguas Santas
Sporting Clube	22-34 L	29-37 L
FC Porto	32-29 W	29-42 L
ABC Braga	35-30 W	30-27 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SL Benfica (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SL Benfica

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	22-34	L
09/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-29	W
02/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	31-25	W
24/04	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	28-40	L
11/04	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	32-42	L
29/03	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	35-27	W
07/03	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	29-29	D
28/02	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	35-30	W
21/02	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	43-23	W
14/02	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	40-30	W

Aguas Santas

WLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	29-42	L
09/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-37	L
02/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	25-31	L
24/04	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	24-41	L
12/04	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
29/03	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	27-35	L
07/03	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	30-36	L
28/02	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	33-21	W
21/02	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	22-28	L
14/02	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SL Benfica vs Aguas Santas?

Our model gives 84% to SL Benfica.

How many points are expected in SL Benfica vs Aguas Santas?

The model estimates 60.5 total points (SL Benfica 32.4 · Aguas Santas 28.1).