Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: ABC Braga vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.6Total

ABC Braga30.4

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao30.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

41% 59%

ABC Braga Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

ABC Braga 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLLLL

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWLWD

Head-to-head

ABC Braga 4–2 Povoa Andebol/Bodegao (6 last)

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao30-27ABC Braga
ABC Braga27-31Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao34-36ABC Braga
ABC Braga32-26Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
ABC Braga33-21Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Povoa Andebol/Bodegao26-31ABC Braga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ABC Braga 1448 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 1506

	ABC Braga	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Our model	52%	48%
Market	30%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 60.6 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.6ABC Braga 30.4 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 30.1

Match keys

H2H favours ABC Braga: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	ABC Braga	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.8 / 31.3	29.6 / 29.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.2 / 31.8	31 / 29.6
Est. result	30	30

Est. total60.6

Line O/U59.5

Diff.1.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.00

X8.50

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.75

2 (-2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.85

Under 59.51.85

Diff.: 0.65 · Est. total: 60.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +46’	3.00	8.50	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ABC Braga 4–0–2 Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	30-27	ABC Braga
11/04/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	27-31	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
13/12/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	34-36	ABC Braga
01/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	32-26	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
23/11/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	ABC Braga	33-21	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
25/09/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	26-31	ABC Braga

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	1	1	0	46	23	3
2	AA Avanca	1	0	1	23	46	1
3	Aguas Santas	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	ABC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	AD Carvalhos	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Madeira	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	GC Santo Tirso	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Belenenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SL Benfica	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Vitoria SC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ABC Braga	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao
Madeira	33-37 L	30-35 L
Belenenses	27-31 L	33-33 D
Arsenal Andebol	42-28 W	31-26 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ABC Braga (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ABC Braga

LLLWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	33-37	L
09/05	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
02/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	27-31	L
26/04	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
11/04	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	27-31	L
28/03	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-31	D
07/03	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	42-28	W
28/02	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	30-35	L
20/02	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L
14/02	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	27-30	L

Povoa Andebol/Bodegao

LWWWLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	33-33	D
09/05	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	30-27	W
03/05	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	30-35	L
25/04	Belenenses Portugal Liga Andebol	31-26	W
11/04	ABC Braga Portugal Liga Andebol	31-27	W
28/03	Madeira Portugal Liga Andebol	31-32	L
07/03	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	28-24	W
28/02	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	31-26	W
21/02	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	30-24	W
14/02	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	21-42	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ABC Braga vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (ABC Braga 41% · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 59%).

How many points are expected in ABC Braga vs Povoa Andebol/Bodegao?

The model estimates 60.6 total points (ABC Braga 30.4 · Povoa Andebol/Bodegao 30.1).