Handball · Portugal Liga Andebol · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: AA Avanca vs FC Porto

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.5Total

AA Avanca28.2

FC Porto33.3

1X2

20% 80%

AA Avanca FC Porto

Markets

Under 67.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

AA Avanca 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWWLWL

FC Porto 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWLLW

Head-to-head

AA Avanca 0–6 FC Porto (6 last)

AA Avanca30-41FC Porto
FC Porto46-30AA Avanca
AA Avanca32-47FC Porto
FC Porto37-21AA Avanca
AA Avanca19-37FC Porto
FC Porto30-24AA Avanca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AA Avanca 1481 · FC Porto 1560

	AA Avanca	FC Porto
Our model	49%	51%
Market	1%	97%

Estimated total (ours) 61.5 points · Bet365 line 67.5 · -6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.5AA Avanca 28.2 · FC Porto 33.3

Over / Under 67.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~61.3 pts · strength 6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1481 vs 1560).
FC Porto is a clear favourite (80% market).
H2H favours FC Porto: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	AA Avanca	FC Porto
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.3 / 30.4	34 / 28.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.8 / 32	36.6 / 30.6
Est. result	28	33

Est. total61.5

Line O/U67.5

Diff.6

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

167.00

X67.00

21.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+15.5)1.85

2 (-15.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 67.51.85

Under 67.51.85

Diff.: 6.85 · Est. total: 60.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	67.00 → 67.00	Bet365 67.00
X	67.00 → 67.00	Bet365 67.00
2	1.00 → 1.00	Bet365 1.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 2.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:32 +16’	67.00	67.00	1.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AA Avanca 0–0–6 FC Porto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Portugal Liga Andebol	AA Avanca	30-41	FC Porto
10/10/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	46-30	AA Avanca
18/05/25 Portugal Cup	AA Avanca	32-47	FC Porto
15/05/25 Portugal Cup	FC Porto	37-21	AA Avanca
08/03/25 Portugal Liga Andebol	AA Avanca	19-37	FC Porto
05/10/24 Portugal Liga Andebol	FC Porto	30-24	AA Avanca

Standings · Portugal Liga Andebol

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting Clube	1	1	0	46	23	3
2	AA Avanca	1	0	1	23	46	1
3	Aguas Santas	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	ABC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	AD Carvalhos	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Madeira	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	GC Santo Tirso	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Belenenses	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	SL Benfica	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Vitoria SC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AA Avanca	FC Porto
Sporting Clube	23-46 L	29-36 L
Vitoria SC	27-33 L	29-19 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AA Avanca

DLLWDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/08	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	23-46	L
23/05	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	38-27	W
09/05	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	27-33	L
02/05	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	27-26	W
25/04	Arsenal Andebol Portugal Liga Andebol	34-28	W
11/04	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	26-26	D
28/03	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	26-21	W
14/03	FC Porto Portugal Liga Andebol	30-41	L
07/03	Povoa Andebol/Bodegao Portugal Liga Andebol	24-28	L
28/02	FC Gaia Portugal Liga Andebol	28-28	D

FC Porto

WWDWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/05	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	42-29	W
09/05	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-32	L
02/05	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	29-36	L
24/04	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	41-24	W
11/04	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	42-32	W
28/03	Sporting Clube Portugal Liga Andebol	30-33	L
14/03	AA Avanca Portugal Liga Andebol	41-30	W
07/03	SL Benfica Portugal Liga Andebol	29-29	D
21/02	Aguas Santas Portugal Liga Andebol	28-22	W
13/02	Vitoria SC Portugal Liga Andebol	29-19	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AA Avanca vs FC Porto?

Our model gives 80% to FC Porto.

How many points are expected in AA Avanca vs FC Porto?

The model estimates 61.5 total points (AA Avanca 28.2 · FC Porto 33.3).

Over or under 67.5 points?

Recent history points to under 67.5 points (70%).