Handball · Czechia Extraliga · 28/10, 19:00

Prediction: HC Zlin vs HC Frydek-Mistek

Team pages: HC Zlin · HC Frydek-Mistek

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.6Total

HC Zlin30.4

HC Frydek-Mistek28.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

43% 57%

HC Zlin HC Frydek-Mistek

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Under 62.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

HC Zlin 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLLLLL

HC Frydek-Mistek 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

HC Zlin 1–1–4 HC Frydek-Mistek (6 last)

HC Zlin28-28HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek34-26HC Zlin
HC Zlin24-28HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek29-25HC Zlin
HC Zlin34-30HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek30-27HC Zlin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HC Zlin 1445 · HC Frydek-Mistek 1411

	HC Zlin	HC Frydek-Mistek
Our model	65%	35%
Market	26%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 58.6 points · Bet365 line 62.5 · -3.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.6HC Zlin 30.4 · HC Frydek-Mistek 28.2

Over / Under 62.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~60.3 pts · strength 2

Match keys

H2H favours HC Frydek-Mistek: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HC Zlin	HC Frydek-Mistek
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.4 / 32.6	25.7 / 30.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27.2 / 35.2	27 / 32.8
Est. result	30	28

Est. total58.6

Line O/U62.5

Diff.3.9

Over / Under35% / 65%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.50

X9.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.90

2 (-2.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 62.51.75

Under 62.51.95

Diff.: 3.5 · Est. total: 59

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:13 +3’	3.50	9.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HC Zlin 1–1–4 HC Frydek-Mistek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/12/25 Czechia Extraliga	HC Zlin	28-28	HC Frydek-Mistek
28/09/25 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	34-26	HC Zlin
29/11/15 Czechia Extraliga	HC Zlin	24-28	HC Frydek-Mistek
06/09/15 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	29-25	HC Zlin
07/12/14 Czechia Extraliga	HC Zlin	34-30	HC Frydek-Mistek
21/09/14 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	30-27	HC Zlin

Standings · Czechia Extraliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Banik Karvina	8	8	0	0	262	216	16
2	Talent Plzen	8	6	1	1	251	227	13
3	HC Zubri	8	5	1	2	243	223	11
4	HK Lovosice	8	5	1	2	249	230	11
5	Dukla Praha	7	5	0	2	259	204	10
6	Nove Veseli	8	5	0	3	233	219	10
7	KP Brno 1920	7	4	0	3	200	208	8
8	HBC Jicin	8	3	0	5	225	239	6
9	HBC Strakonice 1921	8	1	1	6	233	266	3
10	KH Koprivnice	8	1	0	7	205	238	2
11	HC Frydek-Mistek	8	1	0	7	209	252	2
12	HC Zlin	8	1	0	7	218	265	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HC Zlin	HC Frydek-Mistek
HK Lovosice	27-33 L	27-29 L
HBC Strakonice 1921	24-32 L	29-26 W
Dukla Praha	26-40 L	27-42 L
Talent Plzen	33-37 L	24-27 L
HBC Jicin	26-34 L	23-30 L
KH Koprivnice	29-22 W	27-31 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: HC Frydek-Mistek (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HC Zlin

WWLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	27-33	L
18/10	HBC Strakonice 1921 Czechia Extraliga	24-32	L
11/10	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	26-40	L
04/10	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	33-37	L
26/09	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	26-34	L
20/09	KH Koprivnice Czechia Extraliga	29-22	W
06/09	HC Zubri Czechia Extraliga	27-32	L
02/05	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	28-38	L
26/04	HBC Strakonice 1921 Czechia Extraliga	42-33	W
17/04	KH Koprivnice Czechia Extraliga	32-25	W

HC Frydek-Mistek

WLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	29-34	L
18/10	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	23-33	L
10/10	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	27-29	L
04/10	HBC Strakonice 1921 Czechia Extraliga	29-26	W
27/09	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	27-42	L
20/09	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	24-27	L
13/09	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	23-30	L
06/09	KH Koprivnice Czechia Extraliga	27-31	L
29/04	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	14-25	L
25/04	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	34-26	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HC Zlin vs HC Frydek-Mistek?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HC Zlin 43% · HC Frydek-Mistek 57%).

How many points are expected in HC Zlin vs HC Frydek-Mistek?

The model estimates 58.6 total points (HC Zlin 30.4 · HC Frydek-Mistek 28.2).

Over or under 62.5 points?

Recent history points to under 62.5 points (65%).