Handball · Czechia Extraliga · 27/09, 16:30

Prediction: Dukla Praha vs HC Frydek-Mistek

Team pages: Dukla Praha · HC Frydek-Mistek

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60Total

Dukla Praha32.9

HC Frydek-Mistek27.2

1X2

79% 21%

Dukla Praha HC Frydek-Mistek

Recent form · 10 last

Dukla Praha 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLWLWW

HC Frydek-Mistek 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Dukla Praha 4–2 HC Frydek-Mistek (6 last)

HC Frydek-Mistek29-40Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha32-29HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek30-28Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha32-28HC Frydek-Mistek
Dukla Praha31-32HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek34-36Dukla Praha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dukla Praha 1529 · HC Frydek-Mistek 1391

	Dukla Praha	HC Frydek-Mistek
Our model	77%	23%
Market	72%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 60 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60Dukla Praha 32.9 · HC Frydek-Mistek 27.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dukla Praha (rating 1529 vs 1391).
Dukla Praha is a clear favourite (79% market).
H2H favours Dukla Praha: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Dukla Praha	HC Frydek-Mistek
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.9 / 29.9	26.3 / 30.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	35 / 31	24.4 / 27.8
Est. result	33	27

Est. total60

Line O/U56.5

Diff.3.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.25

X9.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.95

2 (+4.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.85

Under 56.51.85

Diff.: 3 · Est. total: 59.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:55 +17’	1.25	9.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dukla Praha 4–0–2 HC Frydek-Mistek

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	29-40	Dukla Praha
09/11/25 Czechia Extraliga	Dukla Praha	32-29	HC Frydek-Mistek
08/03/25 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	30-28	Dukla Praha
17/11/24 Czechia Extraliga	Dukla Praha	32-28	HC Frydek-Mistek
14/04/24 Czechia Extraliga	Dukla Praha	31-32	HC Frydek-Mistek
07/04/24 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	34-36	Dukla Praha

Standings · Czechia Extraliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nove Veseli	3	3	0	0	90	70	6
2	Banik Karvina	3	3	0	0	101	92	6
3	HK Lovosice	4	2	1	1	132	120	5
4	Talent Plzen	3	2	1	0	88	80	5
5	Dukla Praha	3	2	0	1	111	92	4
6	HC Zubri	3	2	0	1	90	77	4
7	HC Zlin	3	1	0	2	82	89	2
8	HBC Jicin	3	1	0	2	79	86	2
9	KP Brno 1920	3	1	0	2	79	87	2
10	KH Koprivnice	3	1	0	2	75	86	2
11	HC Frydek-Mistek	3	0	0	3	74	88	0
12	HBC Strakonice 1921	4	0	0	4	116	150	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dukla Praha	HC Frydek-Mistek
HK Lovosice	39-26 W	22-27 L
Banik Karvina	30-35 L	30-36 L
Talent Plzen	24-27 L	24-27 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Dukla Praha (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dukla Praha

WLDLWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	39-26	W
13/09	HBC Strakonice 1921 Czechia Extraliga	42-31	W
05/09	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	30-35	L
02/05	HC Zubri Czechia Extraliga	33-28	W
29/04	HC Zubri Czechia Extraliga	31-35	L
25/04	HC Zubri Czechia Extraliga	33-31	W
18/04	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	24-27	L
17/04	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	29-29	D
12/04	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	26-31	L
10/04	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	32-26	W

HC Frydek-Mistek

LLLLLWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	24-27	L
13/09	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	23-30	L
06/09	KH Koprivnice Czechia Extraliga	27-31	L
29/04	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	14-25	L
25/04	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	34-26	W
18/04	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	22-27	L
12/04	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	31-36	L
01/04	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	30-36	L
25/03	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	25-31	L
24/03	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	33-40	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dukla Praha vs HC Frydek-Mistek?

Our model gives 79% to Dukla Praha.

How many points are expected in Dukla Praha vs HC Frydek-Mistek?

The model estimates 60 total points (Dukla Praha 32.9 · HC Frydek-Mistek 27.2).