Handball · Denmark Handboldligaen · 11/09, 19:00

Prediction: Fredericia HK vs TMS Ringsted

Team pages: Fredericia HK · TMS Ringsted

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.3Total

Fredericia HK32.7

TMS Ringsted29.6

1X2

78% 22%

Fredericia HK TMS Ringsted

Markets

Under 63.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

Fredericia HK 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWLWL

TMS Ringsted 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Fredericia HK 4–2 TMS Ringsted (6 last)

Fredericia HK37-33TMS Ringsted
TMS Ringsted23-27Fredericia HK
Fredericia HK32-36TMS Ringsted
TMS Ringsted30-25Fredericia HK
Fredericia HK34-28TMS Ringsted
Fredericia HK29-25TMS Ringsted

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fredericia HK 1502 · TMS Ringsted 1431

	Fredericia HK	TMS Ringsted
Our model	69%	31%
Market	78%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 62.3 points · Bet365 line 63.5 · -1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.3Fredericia HK 32.7 · TMS Ringsted 29.6

Over / Under 63.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~61.8 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fredericia HK (rating 1502 vs 1431).
Fredericia HK is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours Fredericia HK: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Fredericia HK	TMS Ringsted
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.2 / 30.4	29.8 / 34.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.6 / 29.2	30.2 / 36.2
Est. result	33	30

Est. total62.3

Line O/U63.5

Diff.1.2

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X12.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 63.51.88

Under 63.51.88

Diff.: 1.15 · Est. total: 62.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.15 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22
X	14.00 → 12.00▼	Bet365 12.00
2	8.50 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:59 +49’	1.15	14.00	8.50
19:46 +3’	1.22▲	12.00▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fredericia HK 4–0–2 TMS Ringsted

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	37-33	TMS Ringsted
05/09/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	TMS Ringsted	23-27	Fredericia HK
05/08/25 Club Friendlies	Fredericia HK	32-36	TMS Ringsted
09/03/25 Denmark Handboldligaen	TMS Ringsted	30-25	Fredericia HK
20/10/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	34-28	TMS Ringsted
27/04/24 Denmark Handboldligaen	Fredericia HK	29-25	TMS Ringsted

Standings · Denmark Handboldligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GOG	4	3	1	0	130	118	7
2	Ribe Esbjerg HH	4	3	1	0	126	117	7
3	Skanderborg Handbold	4	3	0	1	147	139	6
4	Aalborg Handbold	4	3	0	1	122	120	6
5	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg	4	2	0	2	126	124	4
6	Skjern Handbold	4	2	0	2	134	130	4
7	Fredericia HK	4	2	0	2	117	109	4
8	SonderjyskE	4	2	0	2	123	126	4
9	KIF Kolding Kbh.	4	1	1	2	126	131	3
10	Nordsjaelland Handbold	4	1	1	2	122	129	3
11	Team Tvis Holstebro	4	1	1	2	123	124	3
12	Skive FH	4	1	0	3	145	148	2
13	Mors-Thy Handbold	4	1	0	3	127	132	2
14	TMS Ringsted	4	0	1	3	129	150	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fredericia HK	TMS Ringsted
Aalborg Handbold	33-26 W	26-40 L
Ribe Esbjerg HH	27-31 L	30-30 D
Nordsjaelland Handbold	31-24 W	30-26 W
Skjern Handbold	31-37 L	30-40 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fredericia HK (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fredericia HK

WWLLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/09	Bjerringbro-Silkeborg Denmark Handboldligaen	26-28	L
02/09	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	33-26	W
30/08	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	27-31	L
26/08	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	31-24	W
10/05	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	31-37	L
02/05	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	26-36	L
25/04	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	27-29	L
18/04	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	32-34	L
11/04	GOG Denmark Handboldligaen	28-23	W
04/04	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	41-36	W

TMS Ringsted

LLWWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	30-30	D
02/09	Skive FH Denmark Handboldligaen	35-40	L
29/08	Skjern Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	30-40	L
26/08	Skanderborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	34-40	L
19/04	SonderjyskE Denmark Handboldligaen	22-31	L
15/04	Ribe Esbjerg HH Denmark Handboldligaen	28-35	L
11/04	Nordsjaelland Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	30-26	W
08/04	HOJ Elite Denmark Handboldligaen	33-30	W
28/03	Aalborg Handbold Denmark Handboldligaen	26-40	L
25/03	Team Tvis Holstebro Denmark Handboldligaen	30-31	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fredericia HK vs TMS Ringsted?

Our model gives 78% to Fredericia HK.

How many points are expected in Fredericia HK vs TMS Ringsted?

The model estimates 62.3 total points (Fredericia HK 32.7 · TMS Ringsted 29.6).

Over or under 63.5 points?

Recent history points to under 63.5 points (70%).