Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 10/10, 18:30

Prediction: Bergischer HC (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W)

Team pages: Bergischer HC (W) · SV Werder Bremen (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

60.8Total

Bergischer HC (W)30.1

SV Werder Bremen (W)30.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

64% 36%

Bergischer HC (W) SV Werder Bremen (W)

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 57.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Bergischer HC (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWDWW

SV Werder Bremen (W) 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Bergischer HC (W) 2–2–0 SV Werder Bremen (W) (4 last)

SV Werder Bremen (W)30-30Bergischer HC (W)
Bergischer HC (W)26-25SV Werder Bremen (W)
SV Werder Bremen (W)30-30Bergischer HC (W)
Bergischer HC (W)25-20SV Werder Bremen (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bergischer HC (W) 1466 · SV Werder Bremen (W) 1509

	Bergischer HC (W)	SV Werder Bremen (W)
Our model	54%	46%
Market	63%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 60.8 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +3.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points60.8Bergischer HC (W) 30.1 · SV Werder Bremen (W) 30.7

Over / Under 57.5Over · 65%recent trend · ~60.7 pts · strength 3

Match keys

H2H favours Bergischer HC (W): 2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bergischer HC (W)	SV Werder Bremen (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.8 / 30.8	31.9 / 31.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.4 / 28	29.8 / 34
Est. result	30	31

Est. total60.8

Line O/U57.5

Diff.3.3

Over / Under65% / 35%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.45

X8.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.85

Under 57.51.85

Diff.: 3.3 · Est. total: 60.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:53 +27’	1.45	8.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bergischer HC (W) 2–2–0 SV Werder Bremen (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	SV Werder Bremen (W)	30-30	Bergischer HC (W)
01/11/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Bergischer HC (W)	26-25	SV Werder Bremen (W)
08/02/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	SV Werder Bremen (W)	30-30	Bergischer HC (W)
21/09/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	Bergischer HC (W)	25-20	SV Werder Bremen (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	4	4	0	0	147	104	8
2	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	4	4	0	0	137	115	8
3	Fuchse Berlin (W)	4	3	1	0	130	102	7
4	Bergischer HC (W)	4	3	1	0	125	109	7
5	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	4	3	0	1	122	97	6
6	VfL Waiblingen (W)	4	3	0	1	124	100	6
7	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	4	3	0	1	122	106	6
8	HC Rodertal (W)	4	2	0	2	129	112	4
9	HSG Freiburg (W)	3	1	0	2	88	107	2
10	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	4	1	0	3	111	128	2
11	SV Werder Bremen (W)	4	1	0	3	116	138	2
12	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	4	1	0	3	100	125	2
13	SV Todesfelde (W)	4	0	1	3	126	140	1
14	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	4	0	1	3	108	142	1
15	Rostocker HC (W)	3	0	0	3	69	105	0
16	TUS Lintfort (W)	4	0	0	4	104	128	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bergischer HC (W)	SV Werder Bremen (W)
Rostocker HC (W)	34-25 W	32-23 W
TUS Lintfort (W)	35-31 W	35-34 W
ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	27-24 W	27-36 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	29-34 L	33-32 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bergischer HC (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bergischer HC (W)

LLLLLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-25	W
12/09	TUS Lintfort (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	35-31	W
05/09	Fuchse Berlin (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-29	D
29/08	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-24	W
30/05	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-31	L
23/05	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-37	L
17/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-34	L
09/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-30	L
02/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-33	L
25/04	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-34	L

SV Werder Bremen (W)

WWWWWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	TUS Lintfort (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	35-34	W
12/09	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-36	L
05/09	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-34	L
29/08	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-34	L
30/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-32	W
23/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	35-34	W
16/05	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	30-26	W
14/05	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	39-29	W
09/05	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-29	W
02/05	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-23	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bergischer HC (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W)?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Bergischer HC (W) 64% · SV Werder Bremen (W) 36%).

How many points are expected in Bergischer HC (W) vs SV Werder Bremen (W)?

The model estimates 60.8 total points (Bergischer HC (W) 30.1 · SV Werder Bremen (W) 30.7).

Over or under 57.5 points?

Recent history points to over 57.5 points (65%).