Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 17/10, 19:30

Prediction: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) vs HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)

Team pages: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) · HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

57.9Total

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)30.4

HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)27.5

1X2

75% 25%

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)

Recent form · 10 last

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 5–1 HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) (6 last)

HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)29-331. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)30-24HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)28-21HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)23-331. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)27-31HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)24-271. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 1524 · HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) 1450

	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
Our model	70%	30%
Market	71%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 57.9 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points57.91. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 30.4 · HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) 27.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) (rating 1524 vs 1450).
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) is a clear favourite (75% market).
H2H favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W): 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.7 / 29.3	26.5 / 29.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	33.2 / 27.8	28.6 / 30.8
Est. result	30	28

Est. total57.9

Line O/U57.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.27

X9.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.75

2 (+3.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.75

Under 57.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · Est. total: 57.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:16 +2’	1.27	9.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 5–0–1 HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	29-33	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
06/09/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	30-24	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
01/02/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	28-21	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
14/09/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	23-33	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
18/05/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	27-31	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
06/01/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	24-27	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	6	6	0	0	195	165	12
2	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	6	5	1	0	221	167	11
3	VfL Waiblingen (W)	6	5	0	1	181	147	10
4	Fuchse Berlin (W)	6	4	2	0	206	175	10
5	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	6	5	0	1	189	165	10
6	Bergischer HC (W)	6	4	1	1	183	167	9
7	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	5	4	0	1	158	122	8
8	HC Rodertal (W)	6	4	0	2	192	156	8
9	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	6	2	0	4	169	183	4
10	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	4	1	0	3	100	125	2
11	HSG Freiburg (W)	5	1	0	4	145	171	2
12	SV Werder Bremen (W)	6	1	0	5	167	201	2
13	SV Todesfelde (W)	6	0	1	5	177	208	1
14	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	6	0	1	5	171	214	1
15	TUS Lintfort (W)	5	0	0	5	127	159	0
16	Rostocker HC (W)	5	0	0	5	116	172	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)
SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	31-30 W	34-23 W
HC Leipzig (W)	24-37 L	19-39 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	28-29 L	32-26 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	HSG Freiburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-24	W
19/09	SV Todesfelde (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	39-34	W
12/09	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-30	W
05/09	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-29	W
29/08	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-22	W
30/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-37	L
23/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-31	L
16/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-30	L
09/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-29	L
02/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-27	L

HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)

LLWLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	32-26	W
19/09	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-37	L
12/09	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	21-31	L
05/09	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-24	W
30/08	Fuchse Berlin (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-36	L
30/05	Bergischer HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-22	W
23/05	Fuchse Berlin (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	17-33	L
17/05	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-23	W
09/05	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	21-27	L
03/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	19-39	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) vs HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)?

Our model gives 75% to 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W).

How many points are expected in 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) vs HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)?

The model estimates 57.9 total points (1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 30.4 · HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W) 27.5).