Handball · Denmark 1st Division · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Elitesport Vendsyssel vs Aarhus HC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61Total

Elitesport Vendsyssel30.2

Aarhus HC30.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

49% 51%

Elitesport Vendsyssel Aarhus HC

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Elitesport Vendsyssel 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWWWLL

Aarhus HC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Elitesport Vendsyssel 1–3 Aarhus HC (4 last)

Aarhus HC37-31Elitesport Vendsyssel
Elitesport Vendsyssel21-25Aarhus HC
Aarhus HC31-23Elitesport Vendsyssel
Elitesport Vendsyssel30-28Aarhus HC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elitesport Vendsyssel 1472 · Aarhus HC 1511

	Elitesport Vendsyssel	Aarhus HC
Our model	54%	46%
Market	40%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 61 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61Elitesport Vendsyssel 30.2 · Aarhus HC 30.8

Match keys

H2H favours Aarhus HC: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Elitesport Vendsyssel	Aarhus HC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	29.4 / 31.9	30.7 / 31.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.2 / 31	33.6 / 30.8
Est. result	30	31

Est. total61

Line O/U61.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.30

X8.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.85

Under 61.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · Est. total: 61.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	2.30 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:16 +1’	1.85	8.50	2.30
13:01 +17’	2.30▲	8.50	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Elitesport Vendsyssel 1–0–3 Aarhus HC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Denmark 1st Division	Aarhus HC	37-31	Elitesport Vendsyssel
28/11/25 Denmark 1st Division	Elitesport Vendsyssel	21-25	Aarhus HC
27/02/24 Denmark 1st Division	Aarhus HC	31-23	Elitesport Vendsyssel
29/09/23 Denmark 1st Division	Elitesport Vendsyssel	30-28	Aarhus HC

Standings · Denmark 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HOJ Elite	7	6	0	1	238	194	12
2	TM Tonder	7	5	0	2	208	189	10
3	HC Midtjylland	7	5	0	2	210	201	10
4	Rækker Mølle	7	5	0	2	217	202	10
5	Team Sydhavsoerne	7	5	0	2	223	189	10
6	Grindsted GIF	7	4	1	2	215	199	9
7	Norddjurs Handbold	7	4	0	3	227	199	8
8	Aarhus HC	7	4	0	3	218	218	8
9	Elitesport Vendsyssel	7	4	0	3	207	214	8
10	Lemvig-Thyboran	7	2	1	4	205	210	5
11	Koge	7	2	0	5	201	214	4
12	Odder Handbold	7	2	0	5	224	249	4
13	AGF Aarhus	7	0	0	7	174	223	0
14	Stoholm Håndbold	7	0	0	7	175	241	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elitesport Vendsyssel	Aarhus HC
HC Midtjylland	28-31 L	28-32 L
HOJ Elite	26-37 L	22-32 L
Rækker Mølle	29-32 L	31-28 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aarhus HC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elitesport Vendsyssel

LLLLWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	HC Midtjylland Denmark 1st Division	28-31	L
03/10	HOJ Elite Denmark 1st Division	26-37	L
27/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark 1st Division	29-25	W
20/09	Team Sydhavsoerne Denmark 1st Division	34-32	W
12/09	Stoholm Håndbold Denmark 1st Division	34-30	W
05/09	Grindsted GIF Denmark 1st Division	30-29	W
29/08	Norddjurs Handbold Denmark 1st Division	26-30	L
29/03	Aarhus HC Denmark 1st Division	31-37	L
15/03	Skive FH Denmark 1st Division	27-36	L
11/03	Rækker Mølle Denmark 1st Division	29-32	L

Aarhus HC

LWLLLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	TM Tonder Denmark 1st Division	32-34	L
02/10	Koge Denmark 1st Division	37-32	W
26/09	Odder Handbold Denmark 1st Division	39-34	W
18/09	Rækker Mølle Denmark 1st Division	31-28	W
11/09	Lemvig-Thyboran Denmark 1st Division	29-26	W
04/09	HC Midtjylland Denmark 1st Division	28-32	L
29/08	HOJ Elite Denmark 1st Division	22-32	L
26/04	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark 1st Division	22-28	L
18/04	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark 1st Division	37-36	W
10/04	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark 1st Division	30-34	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elitesport Vendsyssel vs Aarhus HC?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Elitesport Vendsyssel 49% · Aarhus HC 51%).

How many points are expected in Elitesport Vendsyssel vs Aarhus HC?

The model estimates 61 total points (Elitesport Vendsyssel 30.2 · Aarhus HC 30.8).