Handball · Denmark 1st Division · 24/10, 17:00

Prediction: Aarhus HC vs Norddjurs Handbold

Team pages: Aarhus HC · Norddjurs Handbold

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63Total

Aarhus HC31.3

Norddjurs Handbold31.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

63% 37%

Aarhus HC Norddjurs Handbold

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Aarhus HC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWLL

Norddjurs Handbold 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Aarhus HC 4–0 Norddjurs Handbold (4 last)

Aarhus HC33-29Norddjurs Handbold
Norddjurs Handbold30-35Aarhus HC
Norddjurs Handbold27-28Aarhus HC
Aarhus HC28-26Norddjurs Handbold

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aarhus HC 1512 · Norddjurs Handbold 1486

	Aarhus HC	Norddjurs Handbold
Our model	63%	37%
Market	56%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 63 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · +1.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63Aarhus HC 31.3 · Norddjurs Handbold 31.7

Match keys

H2H favours Aarhus HC: 4-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Aarhus HC	Norddjurs Handbold
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.2 / 31.1	32.1 / 31.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.8 / 31.4	34.6 / 30.6
Est. result	31	32

Est. total63

Line O/U61.5

Diff.1.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.60

X8.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.80

Under 61.51.90

Diff.: 0.75 · Est. total: 62.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.60▼	Bet365 1.60
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	2.50 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:12 +4’	1.75	8.50	2.50
18:10 +6’	1.60▼	8.50	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aarhus HC 4–0–0 Norddjurs Handbold

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Denmark 1st Division	Aarhus HC	33-29	Norddjurs Handbold
10/10/25 Denmark 1st Division	Norddjurs Handbold	30-35	Aarhus HC
13/02/25 Denmark 1st Division	Norddjurs Handbold	27-28	Aarhus HC
14/10/24 Denmark 1st Division	Aarhus HC	28-26	Norddjurs Handbold

Standings · Denmark 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HOJ Elite	8	7	0	1	270	222	14
2	TM Tonder	8	6	0	2	240	214	12
3	HC Midtjylland	8	6	0	2	247	235	12
4	Team Sydhavsoerne	8	6	0	2	260	223	12
5	Rækker Mølle	8	5	0	3	242	234	10
6	Elitesport Vendsyssel	8	5	0	3	236	239	10
7	Grindsted GIF	8	4	1	3	243	231	9
8	Norddjurs Handbold	8	4	0	4	261	236	8
9	Aarhus HC	8	4	0	4	243	247	8
10	Koge	8	3	0	5	235	244	6
11	Lemvig-Thyboran	8	2	1	5	239	247	5
12	Odder Handbold	8	2	0	6	254	283	4
13	Stoholm Håndbold	8	1	0	7	206	266	2
14	AGF Aarhus	8	0	0	8	199	254	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aarhus HC	Norddjurs Handbold
Elitesport Vendsyssel	25-29 L	30-26 W
TM Tonder	32-34 L	30-35 L
Lemvig-Thyboran	29-26 W	33-28 W
HC Midtjylland	28-32 L	34-37 L
HOJ Elite	22-32 L	35-37 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Norddjurs Handbold (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aarhus HC

WLLLWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Elitesport Vendsyssel Denmark 1st Division	25-29	L
10/10	TM Tonder Denmark 1st Division	32-34	L
02/10	Koge Denmark 1st Division	37-32	W
26/09	Odder Handbold Denmark 1st Division	39-34	W
18/09	Rækker Mølle Denmark 1st Division	31-28	W
11/09	Lemvig-Thyboran Denmark 1st Division	29-26	W
04/09	HC Midtjylland Denmark 1st Division	28-32	L
29/08	HOJ Elite Denmark 1st Division	22-32	L
26/04	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark 1st Division	22-28	L
18/04	KIF Kolding Kbh. Denmark 1st Division	37-36	W

Norddjurs Handbold

LLWWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	HC Midtjylland Denmark 1st Division	34-37	L
10/10	HOJ Elite Denmark 1st Division	35-37	L
04/10	AGF Aarhus Denmark 1st Division	40-24	W
26/09	Team Sydhavsoerne Denmark 1st Division	24-30	L
19/09	Stoholm Håndbold Denmark 1st Division	40-25	W
12/09	Grindsted GIF Denmark 1st Division	25-29	L
04/09	Lemvig-Thyboran Denmark 1st Division	33-28	W
29/08	Elitesport Vendsyssel Denmark 1st Division	30-26	W
29/03	Team Sydhavsoerne Denmark 1st Division	30-40	L
13/03	TM Tonder Denmark 1st Division	30-35	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aarhus HC vs Norddjurs Handbold?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Aarhus HC 63% · Norddjurs Handbold 37%).

How many points are expected in Aarhus HC vs Norddjurs Handbold?

The model estimates 63 total points (Aarhus HC 31.3 · Norddjurs Handbold 31.7).