Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women · 10/10, 19:00

Prediction: HSG Freiburg (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Team pages: HSG Freiburg (W) · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

61.7Total

HSG Freiburg (W)30.6

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)31.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

46% 54%

HSG Freiburg (W) 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 57.5 points 74%

Recent form · 10 last

HSG Freiburg (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLLLLW

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWWWW

Head-to-head

HSG Freiburg (W) 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) (4 last)

HSG Freiburg (W)36-301. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)28-25HSG Freiburg (W)
1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)23-21HSG Freiburg (W)
HSG Freiburg (W)25-181. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSG Freiburg (W) 1472 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 1493

	HSG Freiburg (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
Our model	57%	43%
Market	34%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 61.7 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +4.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points61.7HSG Freiburg (W) 30.6 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 31.1

Over / Under 57.5Over · 74%recent trend · ~62.3 pts · strength 5

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HSG Freiburg (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.1 / 33.4	29.4 / 30.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.2 / 36.2	32.2 / 30.4
Est. result	31	31

Est. total61.7

Line O/U57.5

Diff.4.2

Over / Under74% / 26%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.60

X8.00

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.80

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.85

Under 57.51.85

Diff.: 4.05 · Est. total: 61.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:55 +25’	2.60	8.00	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSG Freiburg (W) 2–0–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	36-30	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
01/11/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	28-25	HSG Freiburg (W)
21/04/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	23-21	HSG Freiburg (W)
25/11/23 Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	HSG Freiburg (W)	25-18	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W)	4	4	0	0	147	104	8
2	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)	4	4	0	0	137	115	8
3	Fuchse Berlin (W)	4	3	1	0	130	102	7
4	Bergischer HC (W)	4	3	1	0	125	109	7
5	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	4	3	0	1	122	97	6
6	VfL Waiblingen (W)	4	3	0	1	124	100	6
7	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	4	3	0	1	122	106	6
8	HC Rodertal (W)	4	2	0	2	129	112	4
9	HSG Freiburg (W)	3	1	0	2	88	107	2
10	HL Buchholz 08-Rosengarten (W)	4	1	0	3	111	128	2
11	SV Werder Bremen (W)	4	1	0	3	116	138	2
12	SG 09 Kirchhof (W)	4	1	0	3	100	125	2
13	SV Todesfelde (W)	4	0	1	3	126	140	1
14	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	4	0	1	3	108	142	1
15	Rostocker HC (W)	3	0	0	3	69	105	0
16	TUS Lintfort (W)	4	0	0	4	104	128	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSG Freiburg (W)	1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W)	38-29 W	28-29 L
VfL Waiblingen (W)	28-39 L	26-33 L
HC Rodertal (W)	25-40 L	33-29 W
ESV 1927 Regensburg (W)	33-34 L	27-30 L
HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W)	25-32 L	26-27 L
SV Werder Bremen (W)	36-29 W	34-22 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSG Freiburg (W)

WWDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	38-29	W
12/09	SG Nurtingen Zizishausen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	22-39	L
05/09	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-39	L
30/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-40	L
23/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-34	L
17/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-31	L
09/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	25-32	L
02/05	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	29-29	D
25/04	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-29	W
18/04	Rostocker HC (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	36-32	W

1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)

LLLLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/09	SV Todesfelde (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	39-34	W
12/09	SG 09 Kirchhof (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	31-30	W
05/09	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	33-29	W
29/08	SV Werder Bremen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	34-22	W
30/05	HC Leipzig (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	24-37	L
23/05	HC Rodertal (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-31	L
16/05	ESV 1927 Regensburg (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	27-30	L
09/05	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	28-29	L
02/05	HSV Solingen-Grafrath 76 (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-27	L
25/04	VfL Waiblingen (W) Germany 2 Bundesliga Women	26-33	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSG Freiburg (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (HSG Freiburg (W) 46% · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 54%).

How many points are expected in HSG Freiburg (W) vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W)?

The model estimates 61.7 total points (HSG Freiburg (W) 30.6 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 (W) 31.1).

Over or under 57.5 points?

Recent history points to over 57.5 points (74%).