Handball · France Division 1 Women · 11/09, 18:30

Prediction: Paris 92 (W) vs Toulon (W)

Team pages: Paris 92 (W) · Toulon (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

57.5Total

Paris 92 (W)28.6

Toulon (W)28.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

66% 34%

Paris 92 (W) Toulon (W)

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Over 54.5 points 80%

Recent form · 10 last

Paris 92 (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLWLL

Toulon (W) 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Paris 92 (W) 5–1 Toulon (W) (6 last)

Toulon (W)32-33Paris 92 (W)
Paris 92 (W)18-27Toulon (W)
Paris 92 (W)26-24Toulon (W)
Toulon (W)19-28Paris 92 (W)
Paris 92 (W)37-27Toulon (W)
Paris 92 (W)33-29Toulon (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paris 92 (W) 1433 · Toulon (W) 1444

	Paris 92 (W)	Toulon (W)
Our model	58%	42%
Market	63%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 57.5 points · Bet365 line 54.5 · +3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points57.5Paris 92 (W) 28.6 · Toulon (W) 28.8

Over / Under 54.5Over · 80%recent trend · ~56.8 pts · strength 2

Match keys

H2H favours Paris 92 (W): 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Paris 92 (W)	Toulon (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	27.6 / 30.9	27.2 / 29.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.4 / 32	24.4 / 27.6
Est. result	29	29

Est. total57.5

Line O/U54.5

Diff.3

Over / Under80% / 20%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.42

X8.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 54.51.85

Under 54.51.85

Diff.: 3.3 · Est. total: 57.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:41 +7’	1.42	8.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Paris 92 (W) 5–0–1 Toulon (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 France Division 1 Women	Toulon (W)	32-33	Paris 92 (W)
28/09/25 France Division 1 Women	Paris 92 (W)	18-27	Toulon (W)
04/04/25 France Cup Women	Paris 92 (W)	26-24	Toulon (W)
29/03/25 France Division 1 Women	Toulon (W)	19-28	Paris 92 (W)
06/10/24 France Division 1 Women	Paris 92 (W)	37-27	Toulon (W)
14/02/24 France Division 1 Women	Paris 92 (W)	33-29	Toulon (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metz (W)	2	2	0	77	43	6
2	Brest (W)	2	2	0	61	53	6
3	Strasbourg (W)	2	2	0	56	48	6
4	Nice (W)	2	1	1	57	51	4
5	ESBF Besancon (W)	2	1	1	49	52	4
6	St Amand du Hainaut (W)	2	1	1	47	50	4
7	Chambray Touraine (W)	2	1	1	50	50	4
8	Stella St Maur (W)	2	1	1	53	61	4
9	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W)	2	1	1	60	56	4
10	Toulon (W)	2	0	2	49	55	2
11	Plan De Cuques (W)	2	0	2	45	59	2
12	Paris 92 (W)	2	0	2	49	75	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paris 92 (W)	Toulon (W)
Strasbourg (W)	28-29 L	19-25 L
Stella St Maur (W)	32-29 W	27-29 L
Chambray Touraine (W)	25-27 L	22-26 L
Plan De Cuques (W)	29-31 L	23-32 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Paris 92 (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paris 92 (W)

LWLDLLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/09	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	28-29	L
29/08	Metz (W) France Division 1 Women	21-46	L
31/05	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	32-29	W
27/05	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	25-27	L
15/05	Brest (W) France Division 1 Women	26-29	L
10/05	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	29-31	L
06/05	Sambre Avesnois (W) France Division 1 Women	28-28	D
24/04	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	28-31	L
18/04	Toulon (W) France Division 1 Women	33-32	W
25/03	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	26-27	L

Toulon (W)

LLLWLLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/09	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	27-29	L
29/08	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	22-26	L
31/05	Havre Athletic Club (W) France Division 1 Women	35-33	W
27/05	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	19-25	L
16/05	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	19-25	L
10/05	St Amand du Hainaut (W) France Division 1 Women	26-30	L
06/05	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	34-28	W
25/04	ESBF Besancon (W) France Division 1 Women	35-38	L
18/04	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	32-33	L
25/03	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	23-32	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paris 92 (W) vs Toulon (W)?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Paris 92 (W) 66% · Toulon (W) 34%).

How many points are expected in Paris 92 (W) vs Toulon (W)?

The model estimates 57.5 total points (Paris 92 (W) 28.6 · Toulon (W) 28.8).

Over or under 54.5 points?

Recent history points to over 54.5 points (80%).