Handball · France Division 1 Women · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: Toulon (W) vs Metz (W)

Team pages: Toulon (W) · Metz (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.3Total

Toulon (W)25.1

Metz (W)34.3

1X2

15% 85%

Toulon (W) Metz (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Toulon (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLLD

Metz (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Toulon (W) 0–6 Metz (W) (6 last)

Metz (W)34-26Toulon (W)
Toulon (W)24-36Metz (W)
Toulon (W)16-33Metz (W)
Metz (W)33-22Toulon (W)
Metz (W)43-20Toulon (W)
Toulon (W)19-26Metz (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toulon (W) 1427 · Metz (W) 1662

	Toulon (W)	Metz (W)
Our model	28%	72%
Market	5%	90%

Estimated total (ours) 59.3 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.3Toulon (W) 25.1 · Metz (W) 34.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metz (W) (rating 1427 vs 1662).
Metz (W) is a clear favourite (85% market).
H2H favours Metz (W): 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Toulon (W)	Metz (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.1 / 29.9	37.6 / 22.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27 / 29	36.6 / 22.6
Est. result	25	34

Est. total59.3

Line O/U61.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

117.00

X20.00

21.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+11.5)1.85

2 (-11.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.85

Under 61.51.85

Diff.: 2.3 · Est. total: 59.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
X	20.00 → 20.00	Bet365 20.00
2	1.00 → 1.00	Bet365 1.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:15 +33’	17.00	20.00	1.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Toulon (W) 0–0–6 Metz (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 France Division 1 Women	Metz (W)	34-26	Toulon (W)
05/11/25 France Division 1 Women	Toulon (W)	24-36	Metz (W)
14/03/25 France Division 1 Women	Toulon (W)	16-33	Metz (W)
11/09/24 France Division 1 Women	Metz (W)	33-22	Toulon (W)
09/03/24 France Division 1 Women	Metz (W)	43-20	Toulon (W)
01/11/23 France Division 1 Women	Toulon (W)	19-26	Metz (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metz (W)	3	3	0	0	118	62	9
2	Chambray Touraine (W)	3	2	0	1	78	72	7
3	Strasbourg (W)	3	2	0	1	78	76	7
4	ESBF Besancon (W)	3	2	0	1	85	74	7
5	Brest (W)	3	2	0	1	87	80	7
6	St Amand du Hainaut (W)	3	2	0	1	79	79	7
7	Nice (W)	3	1	0	2	76	92	5
8	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W)	3	1	0	2	89	88	5
9	Plan De Cuques (W)	3	1	0	2	72	85	5
10	Stella St Maur (W)	3	1	0	2	75	97	5
11	Toulon (W)	3	0	1	2	81	87	4
12	Paris 92 (W)	3	0	1	2	81	107	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toulon (W)	Metz (W)
Paris 92 (W)	32-32 D	46-21 W
Stella St Maur (W)	27-29 L	50-25 W
Strasbourg (W)	19-25 L	33-20 W
St Amand du Hainaut (W)	26-30 L	31-19 W
ESBF Besancon (W)	35-38 L	38-20 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Metz (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toulon (W)

LLWLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/09	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	32-32	D
04/09	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	27-29	L
29/08	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	22-26	L
31/05	Havre Athletic Club (W) France Division 1 Women	35-33	W
27/05	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	19-25	L
16/05	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	19-25	L
10/05	St Amand du Hainaut (W) France Division 1 Women	26-30	L
06/05	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	34-28	W
25/04	ESBF Besancon (W) France Division 1 Women	35-38	L
18/04	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	32-33	L

Metz (W)

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/09	Nice (W) France Division 1 Women	41-19	W
02/09	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	31-22	W
29/08	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	46-21	W
31/05	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	33-20	W
27/05	Plan De Cuques (W) France Division 1 Women	32-31	W
16/05	Stella St Maur (W) France Division 1 Women	50-25	W
09/05	ESBF Besancon (W) France Division 1 Women	38-20	W
06/05	St Amand du Hainaut (W) France Division 1 Women	31-19	W
03/05	Brest (W) France Division 1 Women	32-28	W
29/04	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	42-23	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toulon (W) vs Metz (W)?

Our model gives 85% to Metz (W).

How many points are expected in Toulon (W) vs Metz (W)?

The model estimates 59.3 total points (Toulon (W) 25.1 · Metz (W) 34.3).