Handball · France Division 1 Women · 11/09, 19:30

Prediction: Stella St Maur (W) vs ESBF Besancon (W)

Team pages: Stella St Maur (W) · ESBF Besancon (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.9Total

Stella St Maur (W)28.6

ESBF Besancon (W)31.3

1X2

34% 66%

Stella St Maur (W) ESBF Besancon (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Stella St Maur (W) 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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ESBF Besancon (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Stella St Maur (W) 1–5 ESBF Besancon (W) (6 last)

ESBF Besancon (W)32-28Stella St Maur (W)
Stella St Maur (W)28-31ESBF Besancon (W)
Stella St Maur (W)24-27ESBF Besancon (W)
ESBF Besancon (W)28-26Stella St Maur (W)
ESBF Besancon (W)37-31Stella St Maur (W)
Stella St Maur (W)26-25ESBF Besancon (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stella St Maur (W) 1442 · ESBF Besancon (W) 1518

	Stella St Maur (W)	ESBF Besancon (W)
Our model	49%	51%
Market	21%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 59.9 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · +2.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.9Stella St Maur (W) 28.6 · ESBF Besancon (W) 31.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESBF Besancon (W) (rating 1442 vs 1518).
ESBF Besancon (W) is a clear favourite (66% market).
H2H favours ESBF Besancon (W): 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Stella St Maur (W)	ESBF Besancon (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	26.9 / 33.2	28.7 / 30
Points F\|A (Last 5)	26.8 / 33.8	28.4 / 27.2
Est. result	29	31

Est. total59.9

Line O/U57.5

Diff.2.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.25

X9.50

21.32

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.85

2 (-3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.85

Under 57.51.85

Diff.: 1.9 · Est. total: 59.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.25 → 4.25	Bet365 4.25
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:44 +5’	4.25	9.50	1.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stella St Maur (W) 1–0–5 ESBF Besancon (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/02/26 France Division 1 Women	ESBF Besancon (W)	32-28	Stella St Maur (W)
24/09/25 France Division 1 Women	Stella St Maur (W)	28-31	ESBF Besancon (W)
04/06/25 France Division 1 Women	Stella St Maur (W)	24-27	ESBF Besancon (W)
15/01/25 France Division 1 Women	ESBF Besancon (W)	28-26	Stella St Maur (W)
22/05/24 France Division 1 Women	ESBF Besancon (W)	37-31	Stella St Maur (W)
02/09/23 France Division 1 Women	Stella St Maur (W)	26-25	ESBF Besancon (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metz (W)	2	2	0	77	43	6
2	Brest (W)	2	2	0	61	53	6
3	Strasbourg (W)	2	2	0	56	48	6
4	Nice (W)	2	1	1	57	51	4
5	ESBF Besancon (W)	2	1	1	49	52	4
6	St Amand du Hainaut (W)	2	1	1	47	50	4
7	Chambray Touraine (W)	2	1	1	50	50	4
8	Stella St Maur (W)	2	1	1	53	61	4
9	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W)	2	1	1	60	56	4
10	Toulon (W)	2	0	2	49	55	2
11	Plan De Cuques (W)	2	0	2	45	59	2
12	Paris 92 (W)	2	0	2	49	75	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stella St Maur (W)	ESBF Besancon (W)
Toulon (W)	29-27 W	38-35 W
Nice (W)	24-34 L	26-30 L
Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W)	27-26 W	26-34 L
Metz (W)	25-50 L	20-38 L
Sambre Avesnois (W)	40-29 W	35-26 W
Strasbourg (W)	24-28 L	21-29 L
Chambray Touraine (W)	22-32 L	28-24 W
Brest (W)	21-40 L	21-28 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: ESBF Besancon (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stella St Maur (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/09	Toulon (W) France Division 1 Women	29-27	W
29/08	Nice (W) France Division 1 Women	24-34	L
31/05	Paris 92 (W) France Division 1 Women	29-32	L
27/05	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	27-26	W
16/05	Metz (W) France Division 1 Women	25-50	L
10/05	Sambre Avesnois (W) France Division 1 Women	40-29	W
06/05	Toulon (W) France Division 1 Women	28-34	L
24/04	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	24-28	L
17/04	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	22-32	L
25/03	Brest (W) France Division 1 Women	21-40	L

ESBF Besancon (W)

WLWLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	28-24	W
29/08	Brest (W) France Division 1 Women	21-28	L
31/05	Chambray Touraine (W) France Division 1 Women	32-28	W
27/05	Sambre Avesnois (W) France Division 1 Women	35-26	W
15/05	Nice (W) France Division 1 Women	26-30	L
09/05	Metz (W) France Division 1 Women	20-38	L
06/05	Jeanne d’Arc Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women	26-34	L
25/04	Toulon (W) France Division 1 Women	38-35	W
18/04	Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women	21-29	L
25/03	Havre Athletic Club (W) France Division 1 Women	40-28	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stella St Maur (W) vs ESBF Besancon (W)?

Our model gives 66% to ESBF Besancon (W).

How many points are expected in Stella St Maur (W) vs ESBF Besancon (W)?

The model estimates 59.9 total points (Stella St Maur (W) 28.6 · ESBF Besancon (W) 31.3).