Handball · Spain Liga Guerreras Women · 09/09, 20:30

Prediction: Atletico Guardes (W) vs Sporting La Rioja (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

42.3Total

Atletico Guardes (W)21.1

Sporting La Rioja (W)21.1

1X2

77% 23%

Atletico Guardes (W) Sporting La Rioja (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Guardes (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Sporting La Rioja (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Guardes (W) 5–1 Sporting La Rioja (W) (6 last)

Atletico Guardes (W)20-22Sporting La Rioja (W)
Sporting La Rioja (W)19-26Atletico Guardes (W)
Atletico Guardes (W)27-25Sporting La Rioja (W)
Sporting La Rioja (W)21-23Atletico Guardes (W)
Sporting La Rioja (W)18-20Atletico Guardes (W)
Atletico Guardes (W)32-24Sporting La Rioja (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Guardes (W) 1533 · Sporting La Rioja (W) 1526

	Atletico Guardes (W)	Sporting La Rioja (W)
Our model	61%	39%
Market	81%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 42.3 points · Bet365 line 45.5 · -3.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points42.3Atletico Guardes (W) 21.1 · Sporting La Rioja (W) 21.1

Match keys

Atletico Guardes (W) is a clear favourite (77% market).
H2H favours Atletico Guardes (W): 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Atletico Guardes (W)	Sporting La Rioja (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	20.8 / 22.7	22.5 / 21.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	20.2 / 21.4	22.2 / 22.6
Est. result	21	21

Est. total42.3

Line O/U45.5

Diff.3.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.12

X11.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.85

2 (+5.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 45.51.85

Under 45.51.85

Diff.: 1.7 · Est. total: 43.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.12 → 1.12	Bet365 1.12
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:29 +18’	1.12	11.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Guardes (W) 5–0–1 Sporting La Rioja (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/01/26 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Atletico Guardes (W)	20-22	Sporting La Rioja (W)
14/09/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Sporting La Rioja (W)	19-26	Atletico Guardes (W)
01/03/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Atletico Guardes (W)	27-25	Sporting La Rioja (W)
19/10/24 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Sporting La Rioja (W)	21-23	Atletico Guardes (W)
22/02/23 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Sporting La Rioja (W)	18-20	Atletico Guardes (W)
17/09/22 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Atletico Guardes (W)	32-24	Sporting La Rioja (W)

Standings · Spain Liga Guerreras Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bera Bera (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Beti-Onak (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elda Prestigio (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Granollers (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Morvedre (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Porrino (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pozuelo de Calatrava (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rocasa (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Guardes (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Elche (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting La Rioja (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CBF Malaga (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oviedo BM (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Guardes (W)	Sporting La Rioja (W)
BM Porrino (W)	15-20 L	22-25 L
Elda Prestigio (W)	26-27 L	21-16 W
Beti-Onak (W)	19-24 L	22-19 W
Aula Cultural (W)	26-24 W	25-19 W
CBF Malaga (W)	19-25 L	21-20 W
San Jose Obrero (W)	25-20 W	28-24 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting La Rioja (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Guardes (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/05	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	15-20	L
15/04	BM Morvedre (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	23-23	D
04/04	Elda Prestigio (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-27	L
31/03	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-21	W
18/03	BM Elche (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	12-16	L
15/03	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	18-27	L
10/03	Beti-Onak (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-24	L
28/02	Aula Cultural (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-24	W
22/02	CBF Malaga (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-25	L
07/02	San Jose Obrero (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-20	W

Sporting La Rioja (W)

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/05	Bera Bera (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	20-24	L
25/04	Bera Bera (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	23-25	L
18/04	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-25	L
04/04	Aula Cultural (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-19	W
01/04	CBF Malaga (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	21-20	W
21/03	Beti-Onak (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-19	W
14/03	San Jose Obrero (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	28-24	W
28/02	Bera Bera (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	16-21	L
22/02	Elda Prestigio (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	21-16	W
14/02	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	27-23	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Guardes (W) vs Sporting La Rioja (W)?

Our model gives 77% to Atletico Guardes (W).

How many points are expected in Atletico Guardes (W) vs Sporting La Rioja (W)?

The model estimates 42.3 total points (Atletico Guardes (W) 21.1 · Sporting La Rioja (W) 21.1).