Handball · Spain Liga Guerreras Women · 16/09, 20:30

Prediction: Atletico Guardes (W) vs BM Elche (W)

Team pages: Atletico Guardes (W) · BM Elche (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

41.7Total

Atletico Guardes (W)20.6

BM Elche (W)21.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

64% 36%

Atletico Guardes (W) BM Elche (W)

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Guardes (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDLWW

BM Elche (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Guardes (W) 3–1–2 BM Elche (W) (6 last)

BM Elche (W)20-20Atletico Guardes (W)
Atletico Guardes (W)21-20BM Elche (W)
BM Elche (W)16-12Atletico Guardes (W)
Atletico Guardes (W)20-17BM Elche (W)
Atletico Guardes (W)23-20BM Elche (W)
BM Elche (W)26-22Atletico Guardes (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Guardes (W) 1559 · BM Elche (W) 1573

	Atletico Guardes (W)	BM Elche (W)
Our model	58%	42%
Market	60%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 41.7 points · Bet365 line 43.5 · -1.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points41.7Atletico Guardes (W) 20.6 · BM Elche (W) 21.1

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Guardes (W): 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Atletico Guardes (W)	BM Elche (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	21.9 / 21.5	22.9 / 20.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	23.8 / 20.6	24.4 / 20.8
Est. result	21	21

Est. total41.7

Line O/U43.5

Diff.1.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.50

X7.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)2.00

2 (+2.5)1.72

Line ⓘ

Over 43.51.85

Under 43.51.85

Diff.: 0 · Est. total: 43.5

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 22:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.50▲	Bet365 1.50
X	9.00 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50
2	5.50 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:41 +7’	1.22	9.00	5.50
20:37 +20’	1.50▲	7.50▼	3.30▼
21:55	1.40▼	8.00▲	3.80▲
22:43 +9’	1.50▲	7.50▼	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Guardes (W) 3–1–2 BM Elche (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 European Cup Women	BM Elche (W)	20-20	Atletico Guardes (W)
21/03/26 European Cup Women	Atletico Guardes (W)	21-20	BM Elche (W)
18/03/26 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	16-12	Atletico Guardes (W)
12/11/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Atletico Guardes (W)	20-17	BM Elche (W)
25/05/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Atletico Guardes (W)	23-20	BM Elche (W)
21/05/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	26-22	Atletico Guardes (W)

Standings · Spain Liga Guerreras Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Guardes (W)	2	2	0	55	33	4
2	BM Elche (W)	2	2	0	57	42	4
3	Bera Bera (W)	2	2	0	48	34	4
4	Elda Prestigio (W)	2	2	0	46	41	4
5	Sporting La Rioja (W)	2	1	1	45	52	2
6	BM Granollers (W)	2	1	1	39	43	2
7	CBF Malaga (W)	2	1	1	46	36	2
8	Rocasa (W)	2	1	1	58	54	2
9	BM Porrino (W)	2	1	1	43	45	2
10	Oviedo BM (W)	2	1	1	36	34	2
11	Beti-Onak (W)	2	0	2	39	50	0
12	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W)	2	0	2	42	54	0
13	BM Morvedre (W)	2	0	2	35	53	0
14	Pozuelo de Calatrava (W)	2	0	2	32	50	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Guardes (W)	BM Elche (W)
BM Morvedre (W)	26-16 W	25-25 D
BM Porrino (W)	15-20 L	26-16 W
Elda Prestigio (W)	26-27 L	22-21 W
Rocasa (W)	25-21 W	31-26 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: BM Elche (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Guardes (W)

WLLLWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	BM Morvedre (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-16	W
09/09	Sporting La Rioja (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	29-17	W
02/05	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	15-20	L
15/04	BM Morvedre (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	23-23	D
04/04	Elda Prestigio (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-27	L
31/03	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-21	W
18/03	BM Elche (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	12-16	L
15/03	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	18-27	L
10/03	Beti-Onak (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-24	L
28/02	Aula Cultural (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-24	W

BM Elche (W)

WLWDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-16	W
09/09	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	31-26	W
03/05	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-25	L
25/04	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-19	W
18/04	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-18	W
04/04	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-21	W
01/04	BM Morvedre (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-25	D
18/03	Atletico Guardes (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	16-12	W
14/03	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-24	L
28/02	Elda Prestigio (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-21	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Guardes (W) vs BM Elche (W)?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Atletico Guardes (W) 64% · BM Elche (W) 36%).

How many points are expected in Atletico Guardes (W) vs BM Elche (W)?

The model estimates 41.7 total points (Atletico Guardes (W) 20.6 · BM Elche (W) 21.1).