Handball · Spain Liga Guerreras Women · 09/09, 19:30

Prediction: Rocasa (W) vs BM Elche (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

42.3Total

Rocasa (W)21.2

BM Elche (W)21.1

1X2

76% 24%

Rocasa (W) BM Elche (W)

Recent form · 10 last

Rocasa (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWWWW

BM Elche (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Rocasa (W) 3–3 BM Elche (W) (6 last)

Rocasa (W)25-19BM Elche (W)
BM Elche (W)24-19Rocasa (W)
Rocasa (W)24-19BM Elche (W)
BM Elche (W)15-25Rocasa (W)
BM Elche (W)23-18Rocasa (W)
Rocasa (W)19-22BM Elche (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rocasa (W) 1572 · BM Elche (W) 1556

	Rocasa (W)	BM Elche (W)
Our model	62%	38%
Market	77%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 42.3 points · Bet365 line 46.5 · -4.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points42.3Rocasa (W) 21.2 · BM Elche (W) 21.1

Match keys

Rocasa (W) is a clear favourite (76% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Rocasa (W)	BM Elche (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	22.7 / 22	21.4 / 20.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	24.4 / 20.4	23 / 21.6
Est. result	21	21

Est. total42.3

Line O/U46.5

Diff.4.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.16

X10.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)2.00

2 (+5.5)1.72

Line ⓘ

Over 46.51.85

Under 46.51.85

Diff.: 3.3 · Est. total: 43.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 1.16▼	Bet365 1.16
X	11.00 → 10.00▼	Bet365 10.00
2	1.13 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:20 +28’	7.50	11.00	1.13
13:46 +2’	1.13▼	11.00	7.50▲
01:44 +5’	1.16▲	10.00▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rocasa (W) 3–0–3 BM Elche (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Rocasa (W)	25-19	BM Elche (W)
25/04/26 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	24-19	Rocasa (W)
14/03/26 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Rocasa (W)	24-19	BM Elche (W)
01/11/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	15-25	Rocasa (W)
03/05/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	23-18	Rocasa (W)
15/01/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Rocasa (W)	19-22	BM Elche (W)

Standings · Spain Liga Guerreras Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bera Bera (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Beti-Onak (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elda Prestigio (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Granollers (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Morvedre (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Porrino (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pozuelo de Calatrava (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rocasa (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Guardes (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BM Elche (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting La Rioja (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CBF Malaga (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oviedo BM (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rocasa (W)	BM Elche (W)
Lanzarote Zonzamas (W)	25-26 L	25-21 W
Atletico Guardes (W)	21-25 L	16-12 W
Elda Prestigio (W)	16-24 L	22-21 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: BM Elche (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rocasa (W)

WLLLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/05	Bera Bera (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-23	W
27/05	Bera Bera (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	23-19	W
24/05	CBF Malaga (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	21-18	W
16/05	CBF Malaga (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	27-23	W
03/05	BM Elche (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-19	W
25/04	BM Elche (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-24	L
18/04	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-26	L
31/03	Atletico Guardes (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	21-25	L
21/03	Elda Prestigio (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	16-24	L
14/03	BM Elche (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-19	W

BM Elche (W)

DWWLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/05	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-25	L
25/04	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-19	W
18/04	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-18	W
04/04	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-21	W
01/04	BM Morvedre (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-25	D
18/03	Atletico Guardes (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	16-12	W
14/03	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-24	L
28/02	Elda Prestigio (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-21	W
21/02	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-18	W
15/02	Aula Cultural (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	20-20	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rocasa (W) vs BM Elche (W)?

Our model gives 76% to Rocasa (W).

How many points are expected in Rocasa (W) vs BM Elche (W)?

The model estimates 42.3 total points (Rocasa (W) 21.2 · BM Elche (W) 21.1).