Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: VFL Bad Schwartau vs TSV Bayer Dormagen

Team pages: VFL Bad Schwartau · TSV Bayer Dormagen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

62.5Total

VFL Bad Schwartau33.1

TSV Bayer Dormagen29.4

1X2

76% 24%

VFL Bad Schwartau TSV Bayer Dormagen

Markets

Under 65.5 points 70%

Recent form · 10 last

VFL Bad Schwartau 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWWLWW

TSV Bayer Dormagen 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLDWLLLL

Head-to-head

VFL Bad Schwartau 4–1–1 TSV Bayer Dormagen (6 last)

VFL Bad Schwartau34-32TSV Bayer Dormagen
TSV Bayer Dormagen36-39VFL Bad Schwartau
TSV Bayer Dormagen36-37VFL Bad Schwartau
VFL Bad Schwartau28-25TSV Bayer Dormagen
TSV Bayer Dormagen34-28VFL Bad Schwartau
VFL Bad Schwartau29-29TSV Bayer Dormagen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VFL Bad Schwartau 1583 · TSV Bayer Dormagen 1438

	VFL Bad Schwartau	TSV Bayer Dormagen
Our model	78%	22%
Market	68%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 62.5 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points62.5VFL Bad Schwartau 33.1 · TSV Bayer Dormagen 29.4

Over / Under 65.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~61.7 pts · strength 4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VFL Bad Schwartau (rating 1583 vs 1438).
VFL Bad Schwartau is a clear favourite (76% market).
H2H favours VFL Bad Schwartau: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	VFL Bad Schwartau	TSV Bayer Dormagen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.1 / 26.4	32.9 / 34.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.8 / 27	33.4 / 34.8
Est. result	33	29

Est. total62.5

Line O/U65.5

Diff.3

Over / Under30% / 70%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.32

X9.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.85

2 (+3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.85

Under 65.51.85

Diff.: 2.95 · Est. total: 62.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:17 +33’	1.32	9.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VFL Bad Schwartau 4–1–1 TSV Bayer Dormagen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga	VFL Bad Schwartau	34-32	TSV Bayer Dormagen
27/12/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TSV Bayer Dormagen	36-39	VFL Bad Schwartau
16/05/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TSV Bayer Dormagen	36-37	VFL Bad Schwartau
07/12/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga	VFL Bad Schwartau	28-25	TSV Bayer Dormagen
20/04/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TSV Bayer Dormagen	34-28	VFL Bad Schwartau
18/11/23 Germany 2 Bundesliga	VFL Bad Schwartau	29-29	TSV Bayer Dormagen

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VfL Eintracht Hagen	1	1	0	41	23	2
2	VFL Bad Schwartau	1	1	0	34	23	2
3	TV Emsdetten	1	1	0	34	25	2
4	TV 05/07 Huttenberg	1	1	0	42	34	2
5	HC Elbflorenz 2006	1	1	0	38	31	2
5	TUS Ferndorf	1	1	0	34	27	2
7	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen	1	1	0	32	29	2
8	1. Vfl Potsdam	1	1	0	31	30	2
8	SC DHFK Leipzig	1	1	0	24	23	2
10	TSV GWD Minden	1	0	1	23	24	0
10	HSC 2000 Coburg	1	0	1	30	31	0
12	TuSEM Essen	1	0	1	29	32	0
13	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen	1	0	1	27	34	0
13	TSV Bayer Dormagen	1	0	1	31	38	0
15	TV Grosswallstadt	1	0	1	34	42	0
16	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06	1	0	1	25	34	0
17	TuS N-Lubbecke	1	0	1	23	34	0
18	ASV Hamm-Westfalen	1	0	1	23	41	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VFL Bad Schwartau	TSV Bayer Dormagen
VfL Eintracht Hagen	33-37 L	34-37 L
TV Grosswallstadt	26-25 W	33-33 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VFL Bad Schwartau

WWWDDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/08	TuS N-Lubbecke Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-23	W
06/06	TSV Bayer Dormagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-32	W
31/05	VfL Eintracht Hagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-37	L
22/05	HC Oppenweiler/Backnang Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-18	W
08/05	TV Grosswallstadt Germany 2 Bundesliga	26-25	W
01/05	TuSEM Essen Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-29	D
25/04	HSG Krefeld Germany 2 Bundesliga	28-28	D
17/04	TUS Ferndorf Germany 2 Bundesliga	26-24	W
10/04	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen Germany 2 Bundesliga	35-24	W
02/04	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-24	W

TSV Bayer Dormagen

DLLLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/08	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	31-38	L
06/06	VFL Bad Schwartau Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-34	L
31/05	HSC 2000 Coburg Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-34	L
25/05	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	30-33	L
09/05	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06 Germany 2 Bundesliga	42-35	W
03/05	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-32	D
27/04	1. Vfl Potsdam Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-35	L
17/04	VfL Eintracht Hagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-37	L
11/04	SG BBM Bietigheim Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-36	L
04/04	TV Grosswallstadt Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-33	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VFL Bad Schwartau vs TSV Bayer Dormagen?

Our model gives 76% to VFL Bad Schwartau.

How many points are expected in VFL Bad Schwartau vs TSV Bayer Dormagen?

The model estimates 62.5 total points (VFL Bad Schwartau 33.1 · TSV Bayer Dormagen 29.4).

Over or under 65.5 points?

Recent history points to under 65.5 points (70%).