Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga · 11/09, 19:00

Prediction: TuSEM Essen vs HC Elbflorenz 2006

Team pages: TuSEM Essen · HC Elbflorenz 2006

Prediction summary

Estimated points

64.3Total

TuSEM Essen31.2

HC Elbflorenz 200633.2

1X2

35% 65%

TuSEM Essen HC Elbflorenz 2006

Recent form · 10 last

TuSEM Essen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLWWLD

HC Elbflorenz 2006 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWWW

Head-to-head

TuSEM Essen 1–1–4 HC Elbflorenz 2006 (6 last)

TuSEM Essen32-33HC Elbflorenz 2006
HC Elbflorenz 200641-24TuSEM Essen
HC Elbflorenz 200630-30TuSEM Essen
TuSEM Essen36-33HC Elbflorenz 2006
TuSEM Essen31-34HC Elbflorenz 2006
HC Elbflorenz 200626-24TuSEM Essen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TuSEM Essen 1506 · HC Elbflorenz 2006 1580

	TuSEM Essen	HC Elbflorenz 2006
Our model	49%	51%
Market	22%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 64.3 points · Bet365 line 65.5 · -1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points64.3TuSEM Essen 31.2 · HC Elbflorenz 2006 33.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HC Elbflorenz 2006 (rating 1506 vs 1580).
HC Elbflorenz 2006 is a clear favourite (65% market).
H2H favours HC Elbflorenz 2006: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TuSEM Essen	HC Elbflorenz 2006
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.7 / 31.9	33.9 / 30
Points F\|A (Last 5)	32.4 / 32.6	35.6 / 31
Est. result	31	33

Est. total64.3

Line O/U65.5

Diff.1.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.00

X9.50

21.32

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.85

2 (-3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 65.51.85

Under 65.51.85

Diff.: 1.75 · Est. total: 63.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +49’	4.00	9.50	1.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TuSEM Essen 1–1–4 HC Elbflorenz 2006

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TuSEM Essen	32-33	HC Elbflorenz 2006
22/11/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga	HC Elbflorenz 2006	41-24	TuSEM Essen
20/04/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga	HC Elbflorenz 2006	30-30	TuSEM Essen
16/11/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TuSEM Essen	36-33	HC Elbflorenz 2006
18/02/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TuSEM Essen	31-34	HC Elbflorenz 2006
24/09/23 Germany 2 Bundesliga	HC Elbflorenz 2006	26-24	TuSEM Essen

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VfL Eintracht Hagen	2	2	0	0	76	42	4
2	VFL Bad Schwartau	2	2	0	0	76	54	4
3	HC Elbflorenz 2006	2	2	0	0	75	62	4
4	TUS Ferndorf	2	2	0	0	65	53	4
5	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen	2	2	0	0	60	49	4
6	SC DHFK Leipzig	2	2	0	0	57	51	4
7	1. Vfl Potsdam	2	2	0	0	64	62	4
8	TV 05/07 Huttenberg	2	1	0	1	74	67	2
9	TV Emsdetten	2	1	0	1	60	56	2
10	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06	2	1	0	1	56	63	2
11	TSV GWD Minden	2	0	1	1	57	58	1
12	TuSEM Essen	2	0	1	1	63	66	1
13	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen	2	0	0	2	56	65	0
14	TV Grosswallstadt	2	0	0	2	62	75	0
15	HSC 2000 Coburg	2	0	0	2	49	66	0
15	TuS N-Lubbecke	2	0	0	2	54	71	0
17	TSV Bayer Dormagen	2	0	0	2	62	80	0
18	ASV Hamm-Westfalen	2	0	0	2	43	69	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TuSEM Essen	HC Elbflorenz 2006
TUS Ferndorf	35-33 W	31-28 W
TuS N-Lubbecke	29-30 L	37-31 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HC Elbflorenz 2006 (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TuSEM Essen

LDLDWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/09	TSV GWD Minden Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-34	D
30/08	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-32	L
06/06	TUS Ferndorf Germany 2 Bundesliga	35-33	W
29/05	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen Germany 2 Bundesliga	35-34	W
23/05	TuS N-Lubbecke Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-30	L
10/05	HSC 2000 Coburg Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-28	W
01/05	VFL Bad Schwartau Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-29	D
26/04	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-33	L
17/04	1. Vfl Potsdam Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-32	D
10/04	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany 2 Bundesliga	25-34	L

HC Elbflorenz 2006

WWWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/09	TuS N-Lubbecke Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-31	W
30/08	TSV Bayer Dormagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	38-31	W
06/06	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06 Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-34	W
29/05	TV Grosswallstadt Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-29	W
25/05	TSV Bayer Dormagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-30	W
08/05	TV 05/07 Huttenberg Germany 2 Bundesliga	28-29	L
01/05	HSG Krefeld Germany 2 Bundesliga	27-28	L
26/04	TuSEM Essen Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-32	W
17/04	HC Oppenweiler/Backnang Germany 2 Bundesliga	42-28	W
10/04	TUS Ferndorf Germany 2 Bundesliga	31-28	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TuSEM Essen vs HC Elbflorenz 2006?

Our model gives 65% to HC Elbflorenz 2006.

How many points are expected in TuSEM Essen vs HC Elbflorenz 2006?

The model estimates 64.3 total points (TuSEM Essen 31.2 · HC Elbflorenz 2006 33.2).