Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga · 18/09, 19:30

Prediction: TSV Bayer Dormagen vs TuSEM Essen

Team pages: TSV Bayer Dormagen · TuSEM Essen

Prediction summary

Estimated points

67.3Total

TSV Bayer Dormagen33.6

TuSEM Essen33.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

59% 41%

TSV Bayer Dormagen TuSEM Essen

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

TSV Bayer Dormagen 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLLLL

TuSEM Essen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWWLDL

Head-to-head

TSV Bayer Dormagen 4–2 TuSEM Essen (6 last)

TSV Bayer Dormagen39-35TuSEM Essen
TuSEM Essen38-40TSV Bayer Dormagen
TuSEM Essen34-27TSV Bayer Dormagen
TSV Bayer Dormagen30-21TuSEM Essen
TSV Bayer Dormagen30-21TuSEM Essen
TSV Bayer Dormagen32-37TuSEM Essen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSV Bayer Dormagen 1449 · TuSEM Essen 1493

	TSV Bayer Dormagen	TuSEM Essen
Our model	54%	46%
Market	56%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 67.3 points · Bet365 line 66.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points67.3TSV Bayer Dormagen 33.6 · TuSEM Essen 33.7

Match keys

H2H favours TSV Bayer Dormagen: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TSV Bayer Dormagen	TuSEM Essen
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.8 / 34.9	31.8 / 32.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	30.2 / 35.4	31.8 / 35
Est. result	34	34

Est. total67.3

Line O/U66.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.60

X9.00

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 66.51.85

Under 66.51.85

Diff.: 0.9 · Est. total: 65.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:20 +30’	1.60	9.00	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TSV Bayer Dormagen 4–0–2 TuSEM Essen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TSV Bayer Dormagen	39-35	TuSEM Essen
26/09/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TuSEM Essen	38-40	TSV Bayer Dormagen
07/03/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TuSEM Essen	34-27	TSV Bayer Dormagen
06/10/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TSV Bayer Dormagen	30-21	TuSEM Essen
06/10/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TSV Bayer Dormagen	30-21	TuSEM Essen
02/08/24 Club Friendlies	TSV Bayer Dormagen	32-37	TuSEM Essen

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VfL Eintracht Hagen	3	3	0	0	108	73	6
2	HC Elbflorenz 2006	3	3	0	0	117	88	6
3	SC DHFK Leipzig	3	3	0	0	90	83	6
4	1. Vfl Potsdam	3	3	0	0	98	93	6
5	VFL Bad Schwartau	3	2	0	1	108	87	4
6	TUS Ferndorf	3	2	0	1	95	84	4
7	TV 05/07 Huttenberg	3	2	0	1	105	95	4
8	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen	3	2	0	1	88	80	4
9	TV Emsdetten	3	1	0	2	91	90	2
10	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06	3	1	0	2	87	95	2
11	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen	3	1	0	2	87	95	2
12	TuS N-Lubbecke	3	1	0	2	83	96	2
13	HSC 2000 Coburg	3	1	0	2	80	96	2
14	ASV Hamm-Westfalen	3	1	0	2	71	96	2
15	TSV GWD Minden	3	0	1	2	84	86	1
16	TuSEM Essen	3	0	1	2	89	108	1
17	TV Grosswallstadt	3	0	0	3	92	106	0
18	TSV Bayer Dormagen	3	0	0	3	87	109	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSV Bayer Dormagen	TuSEM Essen
TuS N-Lubbecke	25-29 L	29-30 L
VFL Bad Schwartau	31-42 L	29-29 D
HC Elbflorenz 2006	31-38 L	26-42 L
HSC 2000 Coburg	32-34 L	37-28 W
1. Vfl Potsdam	29-35 L	32-32 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: TuSEM Essen (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSV Bayer Dormagen

LLDWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/09	TuS N-Lubbecke Germany 2 Bundesliga	25-29	L
05/09	VFL Bad Schwartau Germany 2 Bundesliga	31-42	L
30/08	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	31-38	L
06/06	VFL Bad Schwartau Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-34	L
31/05	HSC 2000 Coburg Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-34	L
25/05	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	30-33	L
09/05	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06 Germany 2 Bundesliga	42-35	W
03/05	HBW Balingen-Weilstetten Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-32	D
27/04	1. Vfl Potsdam Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-35	L
17/04	VfL Eintracht Hagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-37	L

TuSEM Essen

DLDWLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/09	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	26-42	L
06/09	TSV GWD Minden Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-34	D
30/08	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-32	L
06/06	TUS Ferndorf Germany 2 Bundesliga	35-33	W
29/05	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen Germany 2 Bundesliga	35-34	W
23/05	TuS N-Lubbecke Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-30	L
10/05	HSC 2000 Coburg Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-28	W
01/05	VFL Bad Schwartau Germany 2 Bundesliga	29-29	D
26/04	HC Elbflorenz 2006 Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-33	L
17/04	1. Vfl Potsdam Germany 2 Bundesliga	32-32	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSV Bayer Dormagen vs TuSEM Essen?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (TSV Bayer Dormagen 59% · TuSEM Essen 41%).

How many points are expected in TSV Bayer Dormagen vs TuSEM Essen?

The model estimates 67.3 total points (TSV Bayer Dormagen 33.6 · TuSEM Essen 33.7).