Handball · Poland SuperLiga · 21/09, 18:00

Prediction: Gwardia Opole vs Stal Mielec

Team pages: Gwardia Opole · Stal Mielec

Prediction summary

Estimated points

55Total

Gwardia Opole29.6

Stal Mielec25.3

1X2

63% 37%

Gwardia Opole Stal Mielec

Recent form · 10 last

Gwardia Opole 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLWL

Stal Mielec 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Gwardia Opole 4–1–1 Stal Mielec (6 last)

Gwardia Opole34-27Stal Mielec
Gwardia Opole25-20Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec28-28Gwardia Opole
Stal Mielec25-31Gwardia Opole
Stal Mielec32-28Gwardia Opole
Gwardia Opole25-17Stal Mielec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gwardia Opole 1575 · Stal Mielec 1407

	Gwardia Opole	Stal Mielec
Our model	80%	20%
Market	45%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 55 points · Bet365 line 57.5 · -2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points55Gwardia Opole 29.6 · Stal Mielec 25.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gwardia Opole (rating 1575 vs 1407).
H2H favours Gwardia Opole: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Gwardia Opole	Stal Mielec
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.1 / 26.3	24.5 / 31
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27.8 / 27.4	23.8 / 29.4
Est. result	30	25

Est. total55

Line O/U57.5

Diff.2.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.00

X8.00

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.72

Line ⓘ

Over 57.51.85

Under 57.51.85

Diff.: 2.55 · Est. total: 54.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:43 +14’	2.00	8.00	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwardia Opole 4–1–1 Stal Mielec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Club Friendlies	Gwardia Opole	34-27	Stal Mielec
14/02/26 Poland SuperLiga	Gwardia Opole	25-20	Stal Mielec
22/01/26 Poland Cup	Stal Mielec	28-28	Gwardia Opole
06/10/25 Poland SuperLiga	Stal Mielec	25-31	Gwardia Opole
05/03/22 Poland SuperLiga	Stal Mielec	32-28	Gwardia Opole
09/10/21 Poland SuperLiga	Gwardia Opole	25-17	Stal Mielec

Standings · Poland SuperLiga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chrobry Glogow	3	3	0	96	65	9
2	KPR Legionowo	2	2	0	56	54	6
3	Wisla Plock	2	2	0	83	51	6
4	KS Kielce	2	2	0	83	61	6
5	Wybrzeze Gdansk	3	2	1	99	86	6
6	Gwardia Opole	2	1	1	53	52	3
7	WKS Slask Wroclaw	3	1	2	76	83	3
8	MMTS Kwidzyn	2	1	1	53	70	3
9	KPR Ostrovia Ostrow Wielkopolski	2	0	2	62	69	0
10	Stal Mielec	2	0	2	49	59	0
11	MKS Kalisz	2	0	2	55	71	0
12	MKS Piotrkowianin	3	0	3	72	116	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gwardia Opole	Stal Mielec
KPR Ostrovia Ostrow Wielkopolski	32-30 W	27-22 W
Zaglebie Lubin	34-30 W	33-31 W
MMTS Kwidzyn	29-22 W	26-30 L
Chrobry Glogow	22-26 L	25-31 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gwardia Opole (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gwardia Opole

LWWWWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/09	KPR Legionowo Poland SuperLiga	21-22	L
05/09	KPR Ostrovia Ostrow Wielkopolski Poland SuperLiga	32-30	W
10/05	KPR Legionowo Poland SuperLiga	24-28	L
02/05	Zaglebie Lubin Poland SuperLiga	34-30	W
29/04	MKS Piotrkowianin Poland SuperLiga	28-27	W
23/04	KS Azoty Pulawy Poland SuperLiga	36-28	W
11/04	Zaglebie Lubin Poland SuperLiga	28-25	W
06/04	MMTS Kwidzyn Poland SuperLiga	29-22	W
28/03	MKS Piotrkowianin Poland SuperLiga	27-25	W
09/03	Chrobry Glogow Poland SuperLiga	22-26	L

Stal Mielec

WLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
14/09	Wybrzeze Gdansk Poland SuperLiga	24-28	L
05/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland SuperLiga	25-31	L
09/05	MMTS Kwidzyn Poland SuperLiga	26-30	L
02/05	Chrobry Glogow Poland SuperLiga	22-28	L
25/04	Wisla Plock Poland SuperLiga	22-30	L
22/04	Wisla Plock Poland SuperLiga	23-35	L
12/04	KS Kielce Poland SuperLiga	27-41	L
04/04	KPR Ostrovia Ostrow Wielkopolski Poland SuperLiga	27-22	W
27/03	Wisla Plock Poland SuperLiga	16-34	L
15/03	Zaglebie Lubin Poland SuperLiga	33-31	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gwardia Opole vs Stal Mielec?

Our model gives 63% to Gwardia Opole.

How many points are expected in Gwardia Opole vs Stal Mielec?

The model estimates 55 total points (Gwardia Opole 29.6 · Stal Mielec 25.3).