Handball · Norway Eliteserien · 27/09, 17:00

Prediction: Nærbø IL vs Fjellhammer

Team pages: Nærbø IL · Fjellhammer

Prediction summary

Estimated points

56.3Total

Nærbø IL26.7

Fjellhammer29.5

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

54% 46%

Nærbø IL Fjellhammer

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Nærbø IL 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWWLL

Fjellhammer 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Nærbø IL 4–2 Fjellhammer (6 last)

Nærbø IL31-29Fjellhammer
Fjellhammer27-30Nærbø IL
Fjellhammer29-27Nærbø IL
Nærbø IL29-28Fjellhammer
Fjellhammer26-25Nærbø IL
Nærbø IL33-24Fjellhammer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nærbø IL 1471 · Fjellhammer 1531

	Nærbø IL	Fjellhammer
Our model	51%	49%
Market	49%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 56.3 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · -2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points56.3Nærbø IL 26.7 · Fjellhammer 29.5

Match keys

H2H favours Nærbø IL: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Nærbø IL	Fjellhammer
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.2 / 30.4	27.5 / 26.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	28.4 / 30	27 / 27.8
Est. result	27	30

Est. total56.3

Line O/U58.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.85

X8.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.85

Under 58.51.85

Diff.: 2 · Est. total: 56.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +6’	1.85	8.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nærbø IL 4–0–2 Fjellhammer

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Norway Eliteserien	Nærbø IL	31-29	Fjellhammer
15/10/25 Norway Eliteserien	Fjellhammer	27-30	Nærbø IL
26/03/25 Norway Eliteserien	Fjellhammer	29-27	Nærbø IL
01/12/24 Norway Eliteserien	Nærbø IL	29-28	Fjellhammer
23/03/24 Norway Eliteserien	Fjellhammer	26-25	Nærbø IL
08/10/23 Norway Eliteserien	Nærbø IL	33-24	Fjellhammer

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elverum	5	5	0	0	171	129	10
2	Runar Sandefjord	4	4	0	0	128	100	8
3	Sandefjord	3	3	0	0	106	100	6
4	Follo	4	2	0	2	106	115	4
5	Kolstad	4	3	0	1	122	104	4
6	Nærbø IL	4	2	0	2	118	117	4
7	Viking TIF	3	2	0	1	92	91	4
8	Drammen	3	2	0	1	86	76	4
9	Fjellhammer	4	1	1	2	103	106	3
10	Bergen Handball	4	1	0	3	111	127	2
11	OIF Arendal	3	1	0	2	88	87	2
12	Kristiansand	4	0	1	3	109	124	1
13	Sandnes	4	0	0	4	100	125	0
14	Bergsoy	5	0	0	5	130	169	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nærbø IL	Fjellhammer
Kristiansand	31-25 W	30-30 D
Kolstad	24-33 L	24-25 L
Follo	31-34 L	33-32 W
Drammen	29-33 L	26-29 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fjellhammer (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nærbø IL

WLLLLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	34-36	L
13/09	Runar Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	23-31	L
06/09	Bergsoy Norway Eliteserien	30-25	W
29/08	Kristiansand Norway Eliteserien	31-25	W
22/04	Kolstad Norway Eliteserien	24-33	L
15/04	Kolstad Norway Eliteserien	26-35	L
11/04	Bergen Handball Norway Eliteserien	27-29	L
08/04	Follo Norway Eliteserien	31-34	L
15/03	Drammen Norway Eliteserien	29-33	L
08/03	Halden Norway Eliteserien	27-23	W

Fjellhammer

WWWLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	Kolstad Norway Eliteserien	24-25	L
12/09	Kristiansand Norway Eliteserien	30-30	D
06/09	Drammen Norway Eliteserien	26-29	L
30/08	OIF Arendal Norway Eliteserien	23-22	W
22/04	Elverum Norway Eliteserien	32-33	L
16/04	Elverum Norway Eliteserien	26-30	L
11/04	Elverum Norway Eliteserien	27-33	L
08/04	Sandnes Norway Eliteserien	28-14	W
28/03	Bækkelaget Norway Eliteserien	26-21	W
15/03	Follo Norway Eliteserien	33-32	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nærbø IL vs Fjellhammer?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Nærbø IL 54% · Fjellhammer 46%).

How many points are expected in Nærbø IL vs Fjellhammer?

The model estimates 56.3 total points (Nærbø IL 26.7 · Fjellhammer 29.5).