Handball · Norway Eliteserien · 04/10, 18:00

Prediction: Follo vs Nærbø IL

Team pages: Follo · Nærbø IL

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.5Total

Follo29.7

Nærbø IL29.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

63% 37%

Follo Nærbø IL

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Follo 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLWLD

Nærbø IL 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLLWL

Head-to-head

Follo 3–3 Nærbø IL (6 last)

Nærbø IL31-34Follo
Follo31-24Nærbø IL
Nærbø IL34-32Follo
Follo31-27Nærbø IL
Nærbø IL30-27Follo
Follo25-29Nærbø IL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Follo 1460 · Nærbø IL 1457

	Follo	Nærbø IL
Our model	60%	40%
Market	58%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 59.5 points · Bet365 line 61.5 · -2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.5Follo 29.7 · Nærbø IL 29.8

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Follo	Nærbø IL
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.8 / 30.6	28.5 / 31
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27.2 / 29	29.2 / 30.8
Est. result	30	30

Est. total59.5

Line O/U61.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.55

X8.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 61.51.85

Under 61.51.85

Diff.: 2.05 · Est. total: 59.45

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 01:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.35 → 1.55▲	Bet365 1.55
X	9.00 → 8.50▼	Bet365 8.50
2	3.80 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:32 +2’	1.35	9.00	3.80
23:03 +7’	1.55▲	8.50▼	2.90▼
00:07 +2’	1.35▼	9.00▲	3.80▲
01:07 +6’	1.55▲	8.50▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Follo 3–0–3 Nærbø IL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Norway Eliteserien	Nærbø IL	31-34	Follo
07/12/25 Norway Eliteserien	Follo	31-24	Nærbø IL
11/12/24 Norway Eliteserien	Nærbø IL	34-32	Follo
01/09/24 Norway Eliteserien	Follo	31-27	Nærbø IL
01/03/20 Norway Eliteserien	Nærbø IL	30-27	Follo
10/11/19 Norway Eliteserien	Follo	25-29	Nærbø IL

Standings · Norway Eliteserien

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elverum	6	6	0	0	211	164	12
2	Runar Sandefjord	6	5	0	1	208	166	10
3	Sandefjord	4	4	0	0	140	129	8
4	Kolstad	6	4	1	1	186	162	7
5	Nærbø IL	6	3	0	3	177	179	6
6	Follo	5	2	1	2	136	145	5
7	OIF Arendal	4	2	0	2	122	113	4
8	Viking TIF	4	2	0	2	118	136	4
9	Drammen	4	2	0	2	112	110	4
10	Kristiansand	5	1	1	3	141	146	3
11	Fjellhammer	5	1	1	3	131	137	3
12	Bergen Handball	5	1	0	4	140	161	2
13	Sandnes	5	0	0	5	122	157	0
14	Bergsoy	5	0	0	5	130	169	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Follo	Nærbø IL
Kolstad	30-30 D	28-34 L
Runar Sandefjord	22-33 L	23-31 L
Kristiansand	32-36 L	31-25 W
Fjellhammer	32-33 L	31-28 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nærbø IL (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Follo

LLLWLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Kolstad Norway Eliteserien	30-30	D
19/09	Runar Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	22-33	L
13/09	Drammen Norway Eliteserien	28-27	W
06/09	OIF Arendal Norway Eliteserien	29-33	L
30/08	Sandnes Norway Eliteserien	27-22	W
11/04	Drammen Norway Eliteserien	30-32	L
08/04	Nærbø IL Norway Eliteserien	34-31	W
28/03	Kristiansand Norway Eliteserien	32-36	L
15/03	Fjellhammer Norway Eliteserien	32-33	L
08/03	OIF Arendal Norway Eliteserien	24-29	L

Nærbø IL

LLLLWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/09	Kolstad Norway Eliteserien	28-34	L
27/09	Fjellhammer Norway Eliteserien	31-28	W
20/09	Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	34-36	L
13/09	Runar Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien	23-31	L
06/09	Bergsoy Norway Eliteserien	30-25	W
29/08	Kristiansand Norway Eliteserien	31-25	W
22/04	Kolstad Norway Eliteserien	24-33	L
15/04	Kolstad Norway Eliteserien	26-35	L
11/04	Bergen Handball Norway Eliteserien	27-29	L
08/04	Follo Norway Eliteserien	31-34	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Follo vs Nærbø IL?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Follo 63% · Nærbø IL 37%).

How many points are expected in Follo vs Nærbø IL?

The model estimates 59.5 total points (Follo 29.7 · Nærbø IL 29.8).