Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 07/11, 19:00
Prediction: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia
Team pages: Gimnasia Mendoza · Independiente Rivadavia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Gimnasia Mendoza1.37
Independiente Rivadavia1.42
1X2
Gimnasia Mendoza
Draw
Independiente Rivadavia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Gimnasia Mendoza
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Independiente Rivadavia
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gimnasia Mendoza
3–1–2
Independiente Rivadavia
(6 last)
- Independiente Rivadavia5-1Gimnasia Mendoza
- Gimnasia Mendoza1-0Independiente Rivadavia
- Gimnasia Mendoza2-0Independiente Rivadavia
- Independiente Rivadavia2-0Gimnasia Mendoza
- Independiente Rivadavia0-0Gimnasia Mendoza
- Gimnasia Mendoza1-0Independiente Rivadavia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gimnasia Mendoza 1478 · Independiente Rivadavia 1527
| Gimnasia Mendoza | Draw | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 32% | 33% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Rivadavia (rating 1478 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Gimnasia Mendoza: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimnasia Mendoza | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.6 | 2.2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia Mendoza 3–1–2 Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 5-1 HT 1-1 | Gimnasia Mendoza |
| 22/10/22 Argentina Nacional B | Gimnasia Mendoza | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 03/07/22 Argentina Nacional B | Gimnasia Mendoza | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 24/02/22 Argentina Cup | Independiente Rivadavia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gimnasia Mendoza |
| 31/01/22 America Friendlies | Independiente Rivadavia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia Mendoza |
| 30/09/18 Argentina Nacional B | Gimnasia Mendoza | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Argentinos Jrs | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Gimnasia LP | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 28 |
| 4 | River Plate | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 23 |
| 5 | Belgrano | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Sarmiento | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 21 |
| 9 | Huracan | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 19 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 11 | CA Tigre | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 12 | Racing Club | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Banfield | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 11 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimnasia Mendoza | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| CA Independiente | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Gimnasia LP | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Gimnasia Mendoza (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimnasia Mendoza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 23/10 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/10 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/10 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 06/10 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 31/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 27/10 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 17/10 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/09 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
3-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 31/08 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente Rivadavia win (36%). Probabilities: Gimnasia Mendoza 34%, draw 31%, Independiente Rivadavia 36%.
How many goals are expected in Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Gimnasia Mendoza 1.37 · Independiente Rivadavia 1.42), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.