Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 07/11, 21:30
Prediction: Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia
Team pages: Boca Juniors · Defensa y Justicia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Boca Juniors1.97
Defensa y Justicia0.61
1X2
Boca Juniors
Draw
Defensa y Justicia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Boca Juniors
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Defensa y Justicia
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boca Juniors
2–2–2
Defensa y Justicia
(6 last)
- Defensa y Justicia0-4Boca Juniors
- Defensa y Justicia2-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors4-0Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia2-2Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors0-0Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia1-0Boca Juniors
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boca Juniors 1620 · Defensa y Justicia 1534
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 22% | 10% |
| Market | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (rating 1620 vs 1534).
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boca Juniors | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.4 | 1.9 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors 2–2–2 Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 28/09/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 16/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 22/07/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 10/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 15/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Boca Juniors |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Lanus | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 11 | 25 |
| 6 | Newell's | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 22 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 20 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 18 |
| 11 | Platense | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 17 |
| 12 | Estudiantes LP | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 15 |
| 13 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 22 | 12 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 12 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boca Juniors | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| CA Independiente | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Union Santa Fe | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| San Lorenzo | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Central Cordoba | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Lanus | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 0 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 10 | W |
| 25/10 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 03/10 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 24/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 03/10 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors win (69%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors 69%, draw 21%, Defensa y Justicia 10%.
How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Boca Juniors 1.97 · Defensa y Justicia 0.61), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.