Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 06/11, 23:00
Prediction: CA Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
Team pages: CA Independiente · Deportivo Riestra
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.77Total
CA Independiente1.3
Deportivo Riestra0.47
1X2
CA Independiente
Draw
Deportivo Riestra
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 57%
Most likely score
1-0 21%
Recent form · 10 last
CA Independiente
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Riestra
0-6-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Independiente
2–1–2
Deportivo Riestra
(5 last)
- Deportivo Riestra2-0CA Independiente
- Deportivo Riestra0-1CA Independiente
- CA Independiente0-0Deportivo Riestra
- CA Independiente3-1Deportivo Riestra
- Deportivo Riestra1-0CA Independiente
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Independiente 1488 · Deportivo Riestra 1438
| CA Independiente | Draw | Deportivo Riestra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 31% | 12% |
| Market | 58% | 27% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.77 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Independiente (rating 1488 vs 1438).
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Independiente | Deportivo Riestra | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 5 | 1.5 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente 2–1–2 Deportivo Riestra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CA Independiente |
| 10/11/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 28/04/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Riestra |
| 06/10/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Deportivo Riestra |
| 15/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CA Independiente |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Lanus | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 11 | 25 |
| 6 | Newell's | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 22 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 20 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 18 |
| 11 | Platense | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 17 |
| 12 | Estudiantes LP | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 15 |
| 13 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 22 | 12 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 12 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Independiente | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Union Santa Fe | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| San Lorenzo | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Central Cordoba | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Independiente (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Independiente
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 25/10 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 18/10 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 12/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/08 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
Deportivo Riestra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 27/10 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 20/10 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 05/10 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente win (58%). Probabilities: CA Independiente 58%, draw 29%, Deportivo Riestra 14%.
How many goals are expected in CA Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
The model expects 1.77 goals (CA Independiente 1.3 · Deportivo Riestra 0.47), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.