Football · Tunisia League 2 · 08/11, 14:30

Prediction: OC Kerkennah vs Sfax Railways

Team pages: OC Kerkennah · Sfax Railways

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

OC Kerkennah1.06

Sfax Railways0.91

1X2

38% 33% 30%

OC Kerkennah Draw Sfax Railways

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

OC Kerkennah 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLDLWD

Sfax Railways 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDDDLD

Head-to-head

OC Kerkennah 0–2–2 Sfax Railways (4 last)

OC Kerkennah1-2Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways0-0OC Kerkennah
Sfax Railways1-1OC Kerkennah
OC Kerkennah1-2Sfax Railways

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OC Kerkennah 1502 · Sfax Railways 1543

	OC Kerkennah	Draw	Sfax Railways
Our model	37%	34%	29%
Market	38%	32%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sfax Railways (rating 1502 vs 1543).
H2H favours Sfax Railways: 2-2-0.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OC Kerkennah	Sfax Railways
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	17/67/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.8	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.38

X2.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:48 +13’	2.38	2.80	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · OC Kerkennah 0–2–2 Sfax Railways

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Tunisia League 2	OC Kerkennah	1-2 HT 1-1	Sfax Railways
18/10/25 Tunisia League 2	Sfax Railways	0-0 HT 0-0	OC Kerkennah
21/04/25 Tunisia League 2	Sfax Railways	1-1 HT 0-1	OC Kerkennah
08/12/24 Tunisia League 2	OC Kerkennah	1-2 HT 0-1	Sfax Railways

Standings · Tunisia League 2 · Ligue 2 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EM Mahdia	7	5	2	0	14	7	17
2	CS Msaken	7	4	2	1	12	7	14
3	AS Soliman	7	3	3	1	13	8	12
4	AS Megrine	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
5	Tataouine	7	3	2	2	12	13	11
6	CS Chebba	6	3	1	2	6	6	10
7	SC Ben Arous	6	2	3	1	7	4	9
8	Stade Soussien	6	2	1	3	6	6	7
9	AS Agareb	7	1	4	2	7	10	7
10	Sfax Railways	6	1	4	1	4	4	7
11	OC Kerkennah	6	1	2	3	4	6	5
12	BS Bouhajla	7	1	2	4	2	9	5
13	ES Beni-Khalled	7	1	2	4	3	7	5
14	AS Gabes	6	0	2	4	4	8	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OC Kerkennah	Sfax Railways
AS Agareb	0-0 D	2-1 W
CS Msaken	1-2 L	3-1 W
ES Hammam Sousse	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sfax Railways (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OC Kerkennah

WWDWLLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	AS Megrine Tunisia League 2	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/10	BS Bouhajla Tunisia League 2	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
18/10	Tataouine Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
11/10	AS Agareb Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-0	10	5	D
03/10	EM Mahdia Tunisia League 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	CS Msaken Tunisia League 2	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
11/05	EM Mahdia Tunisia League 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
01/05	CS Hammam Lif Tunisia League 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/04	ES Hammam Sousse Tunisia League 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/04	SA Menzel Bourguiba Tunisia League 2	–	4-0	–	–	W

Sfax Railways

WWDWWDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SC Ben Arous Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
26/10	Stade Soussien Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
18/10	AS Soliman Tunisia League 2	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
10/10	ES Beni-Khalled Tunisia League 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	AS Gabes Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
26/09	CS Chebba Tunisia League 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/05	AS Agareb Tunisia League 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/05	ES Hammam Sousse Tunisia League 2	0-0	2-2	4	7	D
27/04	CS Msaken Tunisia League 2	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
18/04	US Bousalem Tunisia League 2	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OC Kerkennah vs Sfax Railways?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OC Kerkennah win (38%). Probabilities: OC Kerkennah 38%, draw 33%, Sfax Railways 30%.

How many goals are expected in OC Kerkennah vs Sfax Railways?

The model expects 1.97 goals (OC Kerkennah 1.06 · Sfax Railways 0.91), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in OC Kerkennah vs Sfax Railways?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.