Football · Argentina Championship Women · 06/11, 19:00

Prediction: River Plate (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)

Team pages: River Plate (W) · Gimnasia LP (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

River Plate (W)1.86

Gimnasia LP (W)0.78

1X2

62% 24% 14%

River Plate (W) Draw Gimnasia LP (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

River Plate (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWDDLW

Gimnasia LP (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWDW

Head-to-head

River Plate (W) 2–1–3 Gimnasia LP (W) (6 last)

Gimnasia LP (W)4-2River Plate (W)
River Plate (W)0-0Gimnasia LP (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)1-0River Plate (W)
River Plate (W)0-2Gimnasia LP (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)1-2River Plate (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)0-3River Plate (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · River Plate (W) 1521 · Gimnasia LP (W) 1454

	River Plate (W)	Draw	Gimnasia LP (W)
Our model	62%	24%	14%
Market	62%	25%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours River Plate (W) (rating 1521 vs 1454).
H2H favours Gimnasia LP (W): 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	River Plate (W)	Gimnasia LP (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.4	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.60

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Pinn 1.59 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.67
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:55 +4’	1.44	3.60	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:49 +9’	1.59	3.67	5.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · River Plate (W) 2–1–3 Gimnasia LP (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	4-2 HT 2-0	River Plate (W)
29/08/25 Argentina Championship Women	River Plate (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia LP (W)
08/03/25 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	River Plate (W)
22/09/24 Argentina Championship Women	River Plate (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Gimnasia LP (W)
12/06/24 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	River Plate (W)
06/05/23 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	River Plate (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Juniors (W)	11	8	1	2	18	8	25
2	San Luis FC (W)	11	8	0	3	20	13	24
3	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	10	6	3	1	17	7	21
4	Banfield (W)	11	6	3	2	17	9	21
5	San Lorenzo (W)	10	5	4	1	17	8	19
6	Racing Club (W)	11	5	2	4	20	12	17
7	Belgrano (W)	11	5	2	4	19	12	17
8	Social Atletico Television (W)	11	4	5	2	10	7	17
9	Lanus (W)	11	4	3	4	9	11	15
10	River Plate (W)	8	4	2	2	12	6	14
11	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	10	4	2	4	17	17	14
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	11	2	4	5	10	19	10
13	CA Independiente Women	11	3	0	8	13	27	9
14	Huracan (W)	11	2	1	8	9	19	7
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	11	2	1	8	5	18	7
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	11	0	1	10	4	24	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	River Plate (W)	Gimnasia LP (W)
Newell's Old Boys (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Boca Juniors (W)	1-2 L	0-2 L
Racing Club (W)	1-1 D	0-4 L
Lanus (W)	0-0 D	0-1 L
San Luis FC (W)	5-1 W	1-2 L
Social Atletico Television (W)	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: River Plate (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

River Plate (W)

WLLWWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
30/09	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
27/09	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
23/09	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
16/08	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-1	5-1	6	3	W
09/08	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
03/08	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
28/07	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
17/07	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	3-0	6	1	W

Gimnasia LP (W)

LLLLLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
28/09	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
18/09	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-3	0-4	2	7	L
04/09	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
30/08	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
24/08	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
16/08	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
08/08	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
02/08	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in River Plate (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a River Plate (W) win (62%). Probabilities: River Plate (W) 62%, draw 24%, Gimnasia LP (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in River Plate (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

The model expects 2.64 goals (River Plate (W) 1.86 · Gimnasia LP (W) 0.78), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in River Plate (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.