Football · Argentina Championship Women · 07/11, 19:00

Prediction: Lanus (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)

Team pages: Lanus (W) · Boca Juniors (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Lanus (W)0.55

Boca Juniors (W)1.61

1X2

12% 25% 63%

Lanus (W) Draw Boca Juniors (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Lanus (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDDLDL

Boca Juniors (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Lanus (W) 0–6 Boca Juniors (W) (6 last)

Boca Juniors (W)1-0Lanus (W)
Lanus (W)0-3Boca Juniors (W)
Lanus (W)0-2Boca Juniors (W)
Lanus (W)0-2Boca Juniors (W)
Lanus (W)2-8Boca Juniors (W)
Boca Juniors (W)6-0Lanus (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lanus (W) 1471 · Boca Juniors (W) 1593

	Lanus (W)	Draw	Boca Juniors (W)
Our model	11%	26%	62%
Market	13%	24%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (W) (rating 1471 vs 1593).
H2H favours Boca Juniors (W): 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lanus (W)	Boca Juniors (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.9	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

17.00

X3.75

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 7.00▼	Pinn 7.59
X	3.90 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.21 ★
2	1.33 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +20’	8.50	3.90	1.33
00:20 +69’	7.00▼	3.75▼	1.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:17 +13’	7.59	4.21	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanus (W) 0–0–6 Boca Juniors (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Lanus (W)
02/09/23 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Boca Juniors (W)
03/06/23 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Boca Juniors (W)
13/05/22 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Boca Juniors (W)
05/09/21 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	2-8 HT 0-3	Boca Juniors (W)
23/04/21 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	6-0 HT 3-0	Lanus (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Juniors (W)	11	8	1	2	18	8	25
2	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	11	7	3	1	20	9	24
3	Banfield (W)	12	7	3	2	18	9	24
4	San Luis FC (W)	12	8	0	4	20	15	24
5	San Lorenzo (W)	11	6	4	1	22	9	22
6	Belgrano (W)	12	6	2	4	20	12	20
7	Racing Club (W)	12	5	3	4	22	14	18
8	River Plate (W)	9	5	2	2	14	7	17
9	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
10	Social Atletico Television (W)	12	4	5	3	10	8	17
11	Lanus (W)	11	4	3	4	9	11	15
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	12	2	4	6	12	22	10
13	CA Independiente Women	12	3	0	9	14	32	9
14	Huracan (W)	12	2	2	8	11	21	8
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	12	2	1	9	6	20	7
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	12	0	1	11	4	25	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lanus (W)	Boca Juniors (W)
Racing Club (W)	1-3 L	2-1 W
San Luis FC (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
River Plate (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Union Santa Fe (W)	0-0 D	3-0 W
CA Independiente Women	2-1 W	2-1 W
Huracan (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Belgrano (W)	1-3 L	0-2 L
Banfield (W)	2-3 L	0-0 D
Gimnasia LP (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	7 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lanus (W)

WLLWWDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	1-3	1	2	L
03/10	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
27/09	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
23/09	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
19/09	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
11/09	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
05/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
30/08	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
16/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-3	2-3	2	3	L
08/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Boca Juniors (W)

WWWDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
30/09	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
27/09	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
19/09	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
05/09	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
22/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
16/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
08/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lanus (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Boca Juniors (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Lanus (W) 12%, draw 25%, Boca Juniors (W) 63%.

How many goals are expected in Lanus (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Lanus (W) 0.55 · Boca Juniors (W) 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lanus (W) vs Boca Juniors (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.