Football · South Korea K4 League · 31/10, 06:00

Prediction: Gijang United vs Geoje Citizen FC

Team pages: Gijang United · Geoje Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Gijang United1.27

Geoje Citizen FC1.99

1X2

24% 23% 53%

Gijang United Draw Geoje Citizen FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gijang United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Geoje Citizen FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gijang United 1–1–2 Geoje Citizen FC (4 last)

Geoje Citizen FC4-2Gijang United
Geoje Citizen FC0-1Gijang United
Gijang United1-2Geoje Citizen FC
Geoje Citizen FC0-0Gijang United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gijang United 1464 · Geoje Citizen FC 1538

	Gijang United	Draw	Geoje Citizen FC
Our model	23%	24%	53%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Geoje Citizen FC (rating 1464 vs 1538).
H2H favours Geoje Citizen FC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gijang United	Geoje Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.75

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +13’	3.75	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gijang United 1–1–2 Geoje Citizen FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 South Korea K4 League	Geoje Citizen FC	4-2 HT 2-1	Gijang United
31/08/25 South Korea K4 League	Geoje Citizen FC	0-1	Gijang United
21/06/25 South Korea K4 League	Gijang United	1-2 HT 1-0	Geoje Citizen FC
06/04/25 South Korea K4 League	Geoje Citizen FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Gijang United

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gijang United	Geoje Citizen FC
Namyangju FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Geumsan Insam	3-1 W	1-2 L
Pyeongtaek Citizen FC	3-2 W	3-0 W
Jinju Citizen FC	1-4 L	0-0 D
Seosan Pioneer	2-0 W	1-0 W
Seoul Jungnang FC	0-3 L	4-0 W
Jecheon Citizen	1-1 D	2-0 W
Jincheon HR	0-2 L	1-4 L
Pyeongchang United	2-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Geoje Citizen FC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gijang United

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sejong SA South Korea K4 League	0-2	2-5	7	3	L
03/10	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	0-2	1-2	7	0	L
13/09	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	2-0	3-1	0	2	W
29/08	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	1-0	3-2	5	1	W
22/08	Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
25/07	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	Seoul Jungnang FC South Korea K4 League	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
28/06	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
07/06	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
30/05	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	0-3	2-4	2	1	L

Geoje Citizen FC

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Seoul Jungnang FC South Korea K4 League	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
17/10	Haman South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
11/10	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
03/10	Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/09	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
12/09	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
25/07	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	–	1-4	–	–	L
11/07	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
07/06	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
31/05	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	1-1	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gijang United vs Geoje Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Geoje Citizen FC win (53%). Probabilities: Gijang United 24%, draw 23%, Geoje Citizen FC 53%.

How many goals are expected in Gijang United vs Geoje Citizen FC?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Gijang United 1.27 · Geoje Citizen FC 1.99), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gijang United vs Geoje Citizen FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.