Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 01/11, 20:30

Prediction: Yaracuyanos vs Aragua

Team pages: Yaracuyanos · Aragua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Yaracuyanos1.62

Aragua1.33

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Yaracuyanos Draw Aragua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Yaracuyanos 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWWW

Aragua 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DDWDWDWWDW

Head-to-head

Yaracuyanos 3–2–1 Aragua (6 last)

Yaracuyanos2-5Aragua
Aragua1-2Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos1-1Aragua
Aragua0-1Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos3-1Aragua
Aragua1-1Yaracuyanos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yaracuyanos 1545 · Aragua 1568

	Yaracuyanos	Draw	Aragua
Our model	43%	26%	30%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Yaracuyanos: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yaracuyanos	Aragua
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	3.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +27’	2.10	3.25	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yaracuyanos 3–2–1 Aragua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/09/26 Venezuela Cup	Yaracuyanos	2-5 HT 2-1	Aragua
26/08/26 Venezuela Cup	Aragua	1-2 HT 1-1	Yaracuyanos
02/11/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	1-1 HT 0-0	Aragua
27/10/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	0-1 HT 0-1	Yaracuyanos
15/09/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	3-1 HT 1-0	Aragua
11/09/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	1-1 HT 0-0	Yaracuyanos

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	32	21	7	4	56	24	70
2	Barquisimeto	32	16	8	8	58	36	56
3	Yaracuyanos	32	16	7	9	50	31	55
4	Urena SC	32	12	12	8	46	43	48
5	Zamora II	32	13	7	12	55	49	46
6	Atletico El Vigia	32	12	8	12	43	52	44
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	32	9	7	16	39	52	34
8	Atletico Barinas	32	9	5	18	50	63	32
9	Real Frontera	32	4	3	25	27	74	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yaracuyanos

WLLLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	5-1	5	3	W
10/10	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	3-0	3-2	4	7	W
04/10	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	4-1	0	3	W
30/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	1	0	W
26/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	8	7	W
19/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
13/09	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
06/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
02/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	4-3	5	6	W

Aragua

DDWDWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
18/10	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-2	14	6	D
11/10	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	3	8	W
27/09	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
13/09	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
05/09	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
29/08	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	13	5	W
23/08	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	4	9	D
09/08	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	11	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yaracuyanos vs Aragua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yaracuyanos win (43%). Probabilities: Yaracuyanos 43%, draw 27%, Aragua 30%.

How many goals are expected in Yaracuyanos vs Aragua?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Yaracuyanos 1.62 · Aragua 1.33), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Yaracuyanos vs Aragua?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.