Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 08/11, 20:30

Prediction: Monagas II vs Urena SC

Team pages: Monagas II · Urena SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Monagas II1.99

Urena SC1.06

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Monagas II Draw Urena SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Monagas II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWWLD

Urena SC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDDLDD

Head-to-head

Monagas II 0–1–0 Urena SC (1 last)

Urena SC1-1Monagas II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monagas II 1533 · Urena SC 1455

	Monagas II	Draw	Urena SC
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monagas II (rating 1533 vs 1455).
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monagas II	Urena SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	1.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:56 +1’	1.53	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monagas II 0–1–0 Urena SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Monagas II

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	32	21	7	4	56	24	70
2	Barquisimeto	32	16	8	8	58	36	56
3	Yaracuyanos	32	16	7	9	50	31	55
4	Urena SC	32	12	12	8	46	43	48
5	Zamora II	32	13	7	12	55	49	46
6	Atletico El Vigia	32	12	8	12	43	52	44
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	32	9	7	16	39	52	34
8	Atletico Barinas	32	9	5	18	50	63	32
9	Real Frontera	32	4	3	25	27	74	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monagas II

WDDWWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
25/10	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
18/10	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
10/10	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-2	1	9	L
27/09	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-1	6	8	W
13/09	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
05/09	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
30/08	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
23/08	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	2	5	W

Urena SC

LWWLLDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
25/10	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
18/10	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-5	5	3	L
11/10	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
20/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	10	6	L
17/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	3-2	2	9	W
13/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	10	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monagas II vs Urena SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monagas II win (58%). Probabilities: Monagas II 58%, draw 23%, Urena SC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Monagas II vs Urena SC?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Monagas II 1.99 · Urena SC 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Monagas II vs Urena SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.