Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 28/10, 14:30

Prediction: Varnsdorf vs FK Horni Redice

Team pages: Varnsdorf · FK Horni Redice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Varnsdorf2.65

FK Horni Redice1.02

1X2

72% 17% 12%

Varnsdorf Draw FK Horni Redice

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Varnsdorf 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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FK Horni Redice 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varnsdorf 1495 · FK Horni Redice 1428

	Varnsdorf	Draw	FK Horni Redice
Our model	71%	17%	12%
Market	72%	16%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varnsdorf (rating 1495 vs 1428).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varnsdorf	FK Horni Redice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:56 +7’	1.25	5.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Unicov	14	10	2	2	31	17	32
2	SK Artis Brno B	14	8	5	1	23	7	29
3	Frydek Mistek	14	8	3	3	24	14	27
4	FC Brno II	14	8	3	3	31	23	27
5	Sigma Olomouc B	14	8	1	5	28	17	25
6	SK Hranice	14	7	2	5	18	13	23
7	TJ Unie Hlubina	14	6	3	5	31	28	21
8	CSK Uhersky Brod	14	6	3	5	24	23	21
9	MFK Vitkovice	14	5	4	5	17	17	19
10	Slovacko II	14	5	3	6	23	18	18
11	FC Trinity Zlin B	14	5	3	6	17	21	18
12	FK Hodonin	14	5	2	7	20	18	17
13	MFK Karvina B	14	5	2	7	22	24	17
14	SFK Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	15	28	17
15	MFK Havirov	14	2	5	7	12	23	11
16	FK Blansko	14	2	5	7	18	32	11
17	FC Vsetin	14	3	1	10	11	29	10
18	Polanka	14	2	3	9	12	25	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varnsdorf	FK Horni Redice
SK Sokol Brozany	3-2 W	1-3 L
Banik Most-Sous	0-1 L	1-0 W
Hradec Kralove B	2-1 W	1-0 W
Mladá Boleslav B	1-1 D	0-6 L
Slovan Liberec B	1-1 D	1-5 L
FK Jablonec B	0-2 L	0-2 L
MFK Chrudim	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Varnsdorf (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varnsdorf

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	SK Sokol Brozany Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	6	6	W
17/10	Banik Most-Sous Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
11/10	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	2	W
07/10	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
04/10	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	15	6	D
20/09	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	4-4	3	2	D
06/09	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
29/08	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
15/08	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L

FK Horni Redice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-5	7	0	L
17/10	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
10/10	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
26/09	FK Teplice B Czechia 3. Liga	2-1	4-1	3	5	W
20/09	Zenit Caslav Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
12/09	SK Sokol Brozany Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	1-3	6	6	L
05/09	Banik Most-Sous Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/08	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-4	0-6	–	–	L
09/08	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varnsdorf vs FK Horni Redice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varnsdorf win (72%). Probabilities: Varnsdorf 72%, draw 17%, FK Horni Redice 12%.

How many goals are expected in Varnsdorf vs FK Horni Redice?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Varnsdorf 2.65 · FK Horni Redice 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Varnsdorf vs FK Horni Redice?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.