Football · England Northern League Division One · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Loughborough University vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Team pages: Loughborough University · AFC Rushden & Diamonds

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Loughborough University1.49

AFC Rushden & Diamonds1.49

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Loughborough University Draw AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Loughborough University 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Loughborough University 1–1–0 AFC Rushden & Diamonds (2 last)

Loughborough University3-0AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Loughborough University1-1AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Loughborough University 1527 · AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1535

	Loughborough University	Draw	AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Our model	37%	27%	37%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Loughborough University	AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.7	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.56 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:58 +12’	2.40	3.60	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:42 +22’	2.27	3.45	2.54
19:45 +2’	2.29▲	3.50▲	2.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Loughborough University 1–1–0 AFC Rushden & Diamonds

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England Northern League Division One	Loughborough University	3-0 HT 1-0	AFC Rushden & Diamonds
01/01/25 England Northern League Division One	Loughborough University	1-1 HT 0-1	AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Loughborough University

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Bourne Town England Northern League Division One	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
03/10	Nuneaton Town England Northern League Division One	0-1	1-3	7	2	L
22/09	Long Eaton Utd England Northern League Division One	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
05/09	Corby England Northern League Division One	1-1	3-3	10	6	D
25/08	Grantham England Northern League Division One	0-3	2-4	9	6	L
18/08	Sutton Coldfield England Northern League Division One	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/08	Belper Town England Northern League Division One	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
06/04	Shepshed Dynamo England Northern League Division One	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
04/04	Rugby Borough England Northern League Division One	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
21/03	AFC Rushden & Diamonds England Northern League Division One	1-0	3-0	13	6	W

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Boldmere St Michaels England Northern League Division One	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
22/09	Bedworth Utd England Northern League Division One	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
10/08	Barwell England Northern League Division One	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
28/03	Bedworth Utd England Northern League Division One	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
21/03	Loughborough University England Northern League Division One	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
10/03	Coventry Sphinx England Northern League Division One	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
24/01	Long Eaton Utd England Northern League Division One	0-2	1-3	1	4	L
20/01	Anstey Nomads England Northern League Division One	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
04/11	Carlton Town England Northern League Division One	0-1	2-3	5	3	L
01/11	Boldmere St Michaels England Northern League Division One	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Loughborough University vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Loughborough University win (37%). Probabilities: Loughborough University 37%, draw 26%, AFC Rushden & Diamonds 37%.

How many goals are expected in Loughborough University vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Loughborough University 1.49 · AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Loughborough University vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.