Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 27/10, 20:45
Prediction: UCD vs Longford Town
Team pages: UCD · Longford Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
UCD1.78
Longford Town1.25
1X2
UCD
Draw
Longford Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
UCD
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Longford Town
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UCD
3–2–1
Longford Town
(6 last)
- Longford Town0-2UCD
- UCD1-1Longford Town
- Longford Town2-1UCD
- UCD2-0Longford Town
- Longford Town0-0UCD
- UCD2-1Longford Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UCD 1538 · Longford Town 1501
| UCD | Draw | Longford Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours UCD: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UCD | Longford Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 2.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UCD 3–2–1 Longford Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Longford Town | 0-2 HT 0-1 | UCD |
| 09/10/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Longford Town |
| 04/07/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Longford Town | 2-1 HT 0-1 | UCD |
| 01/05/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Longford Town |
| 07/03/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Longford Town | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UCD |
| 12/09/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | UCD | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Longford Town |
Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 35 | 75 |
| 2 | UCD | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 67 | 51 | 56 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 67 | 53 | 54 |
| 4 | Kerry FC | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 41 | 52 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 49 | 46 | 52 |
| 6 | Cobh Ramblers | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 54 | 49 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 42 | 43 | 48 |
| 8 | Wexford FC | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 44 | 58 | 42 |
| 9 | Treaty United FC | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 37 | 53 | 42 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 36 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 70 | 28 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UCD | Longford Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wexford FC | 5-2 W | 3-3 D |
| Treaty United FC | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Bray Wanderers | 1-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Cork City | 1-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Athlone Town | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Cobh Ramblers | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Finn Harps | 5-4 W | 1-0 W |
| Kerry FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UCD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/10 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/10 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 02/10 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/09 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 18/09 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-4 | 1-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 04/09 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 28/08 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-2 | 5-4 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/08 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Longford Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 16/10 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 09/10 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 02/10 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UCD vs Longford Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UCD win (49%). Probabilities: UCD 49%, draw 25%, Longford Town 26%.
How many goals are expected in UCD vs Longford Town?
The model expects 3.03 goals (UCD 1.78 · Longford Town 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Longford Town?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.