Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 25/10, 00:00

Prediction: CD Lara vs Urena SC

Team pages: CD Lara · Urena SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

CD Lara2.14

Urena SC0.87

1X2

66% 19% 14%

CD Lara Draw Urena SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Lara 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Urena SC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLDDL

Head-to-head

CD Lara 2–1–3 Urena SC (6 last)

CD Lara4-1Urena SC
Urena SC0-1CD Lara
Urena SC1-0CD Lara
CD Lara2-3Urena SC
Urena SC0-0CD Lara
CD Lara1-2Urena SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Lara 1584 · Urena SC 1441

	CD Lara	Draw	Urena SC
Our model	66%	21%	13%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Lara (rating 1584 vs 1441).
H2H favours Urena SC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Lara	Urena SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.3	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 3.7	1.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	6.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	5.75 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:21 +10’	1.42	4.33	5.75
20:48 +22’	1.40▼	4.50▲	5.50▼
22:45 +2’	1.33▼	5.00▲	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Lara 2–1–3 Urena SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/10/26 Venezuela Cup	CD Lara	4-1 HT 2-1	Urena SC
06/09/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Lara
24/06/26 Venezuela Cup	Urena SC	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Lara
06/06/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	CD Lara	2-3 HT 0-1	Urena SC
12/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Lara
17/07/16 Venezuela Primera Division	CD Lara	1-2 HT 1-1	Urena SC

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	31	21	6	4	54	22	69
2	Barquisimeto	31	15	8	8	54	36	53
3	Yaracuyanos	31	15	7	9	49	31	52
4	Urena SC	31	12	11	8	44	41	47
5	Atletico El Vigia	32	12	8	12	43	52	44
6	Zamora II	31	12	7	12	50	48	43
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	31	9	7	15	38	47	34
8	Atletico Barinas	31	9	5	17	50	62	32
9	Real Frontera	31	4	3	24	27	70	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Lara	Urena SC
Barquisimeto	1-0 W	0-3 L
Zamora II	2-0 W	0-3 L
Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-2 L	3-2 W
Real Frontera	4-0 W	1-0 W
Yaracuyanos	1-0 W	1-5 L
Atletico El Vigia	3-0 W	2-2 D
Atletico Barinas	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD Lara (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Lara

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
11/10	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/10	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
01/10	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	4-0	6	6	W
19/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
17/09	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
13/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
06/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	11	W
03/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
29/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	3	6	W

Urena SC

LLLWWLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-5	5	3	L
11/10	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
20/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	10	6	L
17/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	3-2	2	9	W
13/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	10	11	L
02/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	3-4	5	6	L
30/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Lara vs Urena SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Lara win (66%). Probabilities: CD Lara 66%, draw 19%, Urena SC 14%.

How many goals are expected in CD Lara vs Urena SC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (CD Lara 2.14 · Urena SC 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Lara vs Urena SC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.