Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 28/10, 14:00

Prediction: Ferroviario Lichinga vs Black Bulls

Team pages: Ferroviario Lichinga · Black Bulls

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.94Total

Ferroviario Lichinga0.82

Black Bulls1.12

1X2

25% 34% 41%

Ferroviario Lichinga Draw Black Bulls

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviario Lichinga 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDLDW

Black Bulls 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWD

Head-to-head

Ferroviario Lichinga 0–3–3 Black Bulls (6 last)

Black Bulls1-0Ferroviario Lichinga
Black Bulls2-2Ferroviario Lichinga
Ferroviario Lichinga2-2Black Bulls
Black Bulls2-2Ferroviario Lichinga
Black Bulls1-0Ferroviario Lichinga
Black Bulls3-0Ferroviario Lichinga

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Black Bulls (rating 1507 vs 1608).
H2H favours Black Bulls: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviario Lichinga	Black Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	3 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.81

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:02

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.52 → 3.52	Pinn 3.52
X	2.59 → 2.59	Pinn 2.59
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:44 +18’	3.52	2.59	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario Lichinga 0–3–3 Black Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	1-0 HT 1-0	Ferroviario Lichinga
26/11/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	2-2 HT 2-1	Ferroviario Lichinga
17/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Lichinga	2-2 HT 1-1	Black Bulls
12/07/24 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	2-2 HT 1-2	Ferroviario Lichinga
05/11/23 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	1-0 HT 1-0	Ferroviario Lichinga
24/10/22 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	3-0 HT 1-0	Ferroviario Lichinga

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	20	13	6	1	30	11	45
2	Costa Do Sol	21	13	4	4	29	12	43
3	Ferroviario Beira	22	11	7	4	25	15	40
4	Ferroviario de Nampula	19	10	3	6	24	24	33
5	UD Songo	20	8	8	4	21	16	32
6	Ferroviario Maputo	21	8	5	8	15	13	29
7	Ferroviario Lichinga	19	8	5	6	16	15	29
8	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	19	7	5	7	13	15	26
9	Vilankulo FC	21	5	9	7	23	20	24
10	AD Pemba	19	6	3	10	10	18	21
11	LD Sofala	22	4	7	11	12	24	19
12	Baía de Pemba F.C	20	4	7	9	9	18	19
13	Chingale de Tete	21	2	7	12	8	20	13
14	CD Maxaquene	20	1	8	11	8	22	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviario Lichinga	Black Bulls
CD Maxaquene	0-0 D	2-0 W
Costa Do Sol	0-2 L	0-3 L
Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	0-0 D	1-0 W
Ferroviario de Nampula	3-0 W	3-1 W
Baía de Pemba F.C	1-2 L	1-0 W
LD Sofala	1-0 W	1-0 W
Ferroviario Beira	0-3 L	2-0 W
Chingale de Tete	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Black Bulls (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviario Lichinga

WLWWLWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
12/10	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
09/10	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
16/09	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
13/09	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	3-0	3-0	5	4	W
02/09	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	1-2	5	1	L
30/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/08	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
14/08	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
10/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Black Bulls

WWWWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
20/09	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
16/09	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
02/09	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	2-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	3-1	11	5	W
26/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-3	8	6	L
21/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
17/08	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
09/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviario Lichinga vs Black Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Black Bulls win (41%). Probabilities: Ferroviario Lichinga 25%, draw 34%, Black Bulls 41%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviario Lichinga vs Black Bulls?

The model expects 1.94 goals (Ferroviario Lichinga 0.82 · Black Bulls 1.12), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviario Lichinga vs Black Bulls?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.