Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 03/11, 14:00
Prediction: Baía de Pemba F.C vs Ferroviario Maputo
Team pages: Baía de Pemba F.C · Ferroviario Maputo
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.85Total
Baía de Pemba F.C0.96
Ferroviario Maputo0.9
1X2
Baía de Pemba F.C
Draw
Ferroviario Maputo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Baía de Pemba F.C
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Ferroviario Maputo
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Baía de Pemba F.C
1–2–3
Ferroviario Maputo
(6 last)
- Ferroviario Maputo0-0Baía de Pemba F.C
- Baía de Pemba F.C3-2Ferroviario Maputo
- Ferroviario Maputo0-0Baía de Pemba F.C
- Ferroviario Maputo1-0Baía de Pemba F.C
- Ferroviario Maputo3-0Baía de Pemba F.C
- Ferroviario Maputo1-0Baía de Pemba F.C
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Baía de Pemba F.C 1490 · Ferroviario Maputo 1517
| Baía de Pemba F.C | Draw | Ferroviario Maputo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 35% | 31% |
| Market | 36% | 32% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.85 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Ferroviario Maputo: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Baía de Pemba F.C | Ferroviario Maputo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.8 | 3.3 / 7.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Baía de Pemba F.C 1–2–3 Ferroviario Maputo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
| 28/11/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Baía de Pemba F.C | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Ferroviario Maputo |
| 02/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
| 24/08/24 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
| 02/07/23 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
| 25/11/19 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Maputo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Baía de Pemba F.C |
Standings · Mozambique Mocambola
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Black Bulls | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 48 |
| 2 | Costa Do Sol | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 13 | 44 |
| 3 | Ferroviario Beira | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 43 |
| 4 | Ferroviario de Nampula | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 36 |
| 5 | UD Songo | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
| 6 | Ferroviario Maputo | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 13 | 29 |
| 7 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 29 |
| 8 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 27 |
| 9 | Vilankulo FC | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 10 | AD Pemba | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 21 |
| 11 | LD Sofala | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 24 | 19 |
| 12 | Baía de Pemba F.C | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 19 |
| 13 | Chingale de Tete | 21 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 20 | 13 |
| 14 | CD Maxaquene | 21 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 24 | 11 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Baía de Pemba F.C | Ferroviario Maputo |
|---|---|---|
| LD Sofala | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Ferroviario Beira | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Chingale de Tete | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| UD Songo | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Vilankulo FC | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Ferroviario Lichinga | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Ferroviario de Nampula | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Costa Do Sol | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| CD Maxaquene | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Baía de Pemba F.C
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/10 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/10 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/09 | Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 25/08 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 19/08 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Ferroviario Maputo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 08/10 | Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/09 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 02/09 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 25/08 | CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/08 | Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/08 | AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Baía de Pemba F.C vs Ferroviario Maputo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Baía de Pemba F.C win (35%). Probabilities: Baía de Pemba F.C 35%, draw 33%, Ferroviario Maputo 32%.
How many goals are expected in Baía de Pemba F.C vs Ferroviario Maputo?
The model expects 1.85 goals (Baía de Pemba F.C 0.96 · Ferroviario Maputo 0.9), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Baía de Pemba F.C vs Ferroviario Maputo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.