Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 04/11, 14:00

Prediction: AD Pemba vs Black Bulls

Team pages: AD Pemba · Black Bulls

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.73Total

AD Pemba0.56

Black Bulls1.17

1X2

18% 31% 51%

AD Pemba Draw Black Bulls

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-1 20%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Pemba 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Black Bulls 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AD Pemba 0–1 Black Bulls (1 last)

Black Bulls2-0AD Pemba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Pemba 1463 · Black Bulls 1611

	AD Pemba	Draw	Black Bulls
Our model	17%	34%	50%
Market	19%	29%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 1.73 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Black Bulls (rating 1463 vs 1611).
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Pemba	Black Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 6	3 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.10

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.02

2 (-0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.26 ★
X	3.00 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
2	1.85 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:59 +5’	4.10	3.00	1.85
12:58 +4’	4.75▲	3.10▲	1.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +16’	5.26	3.08	1.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Pemba 0–0–1 Black Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/08/26 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	2-0 HT 2-0	AD Pemba

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	21	14	6	1	31	11	48
2	Costa Do Sol	22	13	5	4	30	13	44
3	Ferroviario Beira	23	12	7	4	26	15	43
4	Ferroviario de Nampula	20	11	3	6	26	25	36
5	UD Songo	20	8	8	4	21	16	32
6	Ferroviario Maputo	22	8	6	8	17	15	30
7	Ferroviario Lichinga	20	8	5	7	16	16	29
8	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	20	7	6	7	14	16	27
9	Vilankulo FC	22	5	9	8	23	21	24
10	AD Pemba	19	6	3	10	10	18	21
11	Baía de Pemba F.C	21	4	8	9	11	20	20
12	LD Sofala	22	4	7	11	12	24	19
13	Chingale de Tete	21	2	7	12	8	20	13
14	CD Maxaquene	21	1	8	12	9	24	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Pemba	Black Bulls
Ferroviario Beira	0-1 L	2-0 W
LD Sofala	0-0 D	1-0 W
UD Songo	0-1 L	3-1 W
Chingale de Tete	1-0 W	2-1 W
Vilankulo FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Ferroviario Lichinga	0-1 L	1-0 W
Ferroviario de Nampula	2-0 W	3-1 W
Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	1-0 W	1-0 W
CD Maxaquene	1-0 W	2-0 W
Costa Do Sol	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Black Bulls (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Pemba

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/10	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
14/10	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
09/10	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/09	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
21/08	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	0-2	–	–	L

Black Bulls

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
11/10	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
20/09	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
16/09	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
02/09	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	2-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	3-1	11	5	W
26/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-3	8	6	L
21/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
17/08	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-1	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Pemba vs Black Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Black Bulls win (51%). Probabilities: AD Pemba 18%, draw 31%, Black Bulls 51%.

How many goals are expected in AD Pemba vs Black Bulls?

The model expects 1.73 goals (AD Pemba 0.56 · Black Bulls 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Pemba vs Black Bulls?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.