Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 04/11, 14:00

Prediction: LD Sofala vs Vilankulo FC

Team pages: LD Sofala · Vilankulo FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.89Total

LD Sofala1.02

Vilankulo FC0.87

1X2

38% 33% 29%

LD Sofala Draw Vilankulo FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

LD Sofala 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLLLDW

Vilankulo FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLDWLL

Head-to-head

LD Sofala 0–1 Vilankulo FC (1 last)

Vilankulo FC3-1LD Sofala

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LD Sofala 1440 · Vilankulo FC 1494

	LD Sofala	Draw	Vilankulo FC
Our model	37%	35%	29%
Market	38%	32%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 1.89 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vilankulo FC (rating 1440 vs 1494).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LD Sofala	Vilankulo FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X2.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +5’	2.35	2.80	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LD Sofala 0–0–1 Vilankulo FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Mozambique Mocambola	Vilankulo FC	3-1 HT 1-1	LD Sofala

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	21	14	6	1	31	11	48
2	Costa Do Sol	22	13	5	4	30	13	44
3	Ferroviario Beira	23	12	7	4	26	15	43
4	Ferroviario de Nampula	20	11	3	6	26	25	36
5	UD Songo	20	8	8	4	21	16	32
6	Ferroviario Maputo	21	8	5	8	15	13	29
7	Ferroviario Lichinga	20	8	5	7	16	16	29
8	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	20	7	6	7	14	16	27
9	Vilankulo FC	22	5	9	8	23	21	24
10	AD Pemba	19	6	3	10	10	18	21
11	LD Sofala	22	4	7	11	12	24	19
12	Baía de Pemba F.C	20	4	7	9	9	18	19
13	Chingale de Tete	21	2	7	12	8	20	13
14	CD Maxaquene	21	1	8	12	9	24	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LD Sofala	Vilankulo FC
Baía de Pemba F.C	3-0 W	2-0 W
AD Pemba	0-0 D	1-0 W
Ferroviario de Nampula	0-2 L	1-2 L
Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	2-3 L	0-1 L
Black Bulls	0-1 L	2-2 D
Ferroviario Maputo	0-2 L	0-1 L
Costa Do Sol	0-1 L	0-1 L
CD Maxaquene	0-0 D	2-0 W
UD Songo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vilankulo FC (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LD Sofala

WLDLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	3-0	8	1	W
17/10	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/10	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
20/09	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
15/09	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
02/09	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
23/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Vilankulo FC

DLLWWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/10	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/10	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/10	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
08/10	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
16/09	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/09	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LD Sofala vs Vilankulo FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LD Sofala win (38%). Probabilities: LD Sofala 38%, draw 33%, Vilankulo FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in LD Sofala vs Vilankulo FC?

The model expects 1.89 goals (LD Sofala 1.02 · Vilankulo FC 0.87), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LD Sofala vs Vilankulo FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.