Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 31/10, 01:15
Prediction: Sarmiento vs Rosario Central
Team pages: Sarmiento · Rosario Central
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Sarmiento1.09
Rosario Central1.46
1X2
Sarmiento
Draw
Rosario Central
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Rosario Central
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento
1–5
Rosario Central
(6 last)
- Rosario Central2-1Sarmiento
- Sarmiento0-1Rosario Central
- Rosario Central1-0Sarmiento
- Rosario Central4-2Sarmiento
- Sarmiento4-1Rosario Central
- Rosario Central1-0Sarmiento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento 1499 · Rosario Central 1594
| Sarmiento | Draw | Rosario Central | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 31% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rosario Central (rating 1499 vs 1594).
- H2H favours Rosario Central: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento | Rosario Central | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.6 | 3.2 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento 1–0–5 Rosario Central
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Rosario Central | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
| 24/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Rosario Central |
| 23/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Rosario Central | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
| 20/07/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Rosario Central | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Sarmiento |
| 04/03/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Rosario Central |
| 09/07/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Rosario Central | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Argentinos Jrs | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Gimnasia LP | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 25 |
| 4 | Belgrano | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Sarmiento | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 21 |
| 6 | River Plate | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 20 |
| 7 | Barracas Central | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Huracan | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 19 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 17 |
| 11 | Banfield | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 14 |
| 12 | CA Tigre | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 13 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 12 |
| 14 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 9 |
| 15 | CA Aldosivi | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 8 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarmiento | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia LP | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Barracas Central | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Huracan | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Rosario Central (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 20/10 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 15/10 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/10 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 19/09 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/09 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
Rosario Central
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 06/10 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 9 | D |
| 29/08 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 25/08 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 17/08 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Rosario Central win (44%). Probabilities: Sarmiento 26%, draw 30%, Rosario Central 44%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Sarmiento 1.09 · Rosario Central 1.46), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.