Football · Kenya Premier League · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Muranga Seal vs Posta Rangers

Team pages: Muranga Seal · Posta Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Muranga Seal1.31

Posta Rangers1.03

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Muranga Seal Draw Posta Rangers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Muranga Seal 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLWWL

Posta Rangers 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWDWLL

Head-to-head

Muranga Seal 2–1–3 Posta Rangers (6 last)

Muranga Seal1-0Posta Rangers
Posta Rangers2-2Muranga Seal
Posta Rangers3-2Muranga Seal
Muranga Seal1-0Posta Rangers
Posta Rangers1-0Muranga Seal
Muranga Seal0-1Posta Rangers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Muranga Seal 1467 · Posta Rangers 1443

	Muranga Seal	Draw	Posta Rangers
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Posta Rangers: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Muranga Seal	Posta Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/38/50%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:47 +41’	2.15	3.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Muranga Seal 2–1–3 Posta Rangers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Kenya Premier League	Muranga Seal	1-0 HT 0-0	Posta Rangers
30/10/25 Kenya Premier League	Posta Rangers	2-2 HT 2-0	Muranga Seal
26/04/25 Kenya Premier League	Posta Rangers	3-2 HT 1-0	Muranga Seal
15/12/24 Kenya Premier League	Muranga Seal	1-0 HT 0-0	Posta Rangers
21/01/24 Kenya Premier League	Posta Rangers	1-0 HT 0-0	Muranga Seal
24/09/23 Kenya Premier League	Muranga Seal	0-1 HT 0-0	Posta Rangers

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gor Mahia	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	KCB	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Kakamega Homeboyz	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	Shabana FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	3K FC	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
6	Mara Sugar FC	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
6	Nairobi United	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Administration Police FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Migori Youth	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	AFC Leopards	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Bandari FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	Mathare United	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Mombasa United	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	Posta Rangers	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Muranga Seal	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Muranga Seal	Posta Rangers
Mara Sugar FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Bidco United	2-0 W	1-1 D
Kakamega Homeboyz	1-0 W	0-2 L
Nairobi United	2-4 L	2-2 D
Shabana FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Muranga Seal (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Muranga Seal

LLLLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-1	2-4	6	7	L
31/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
10/05	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
06/05	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
25/04	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
19/04	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	2-3	2-4	7	2	L
05/04	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
29/03	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	0	1	L

Posta Rangers

LLLDDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/05	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
16/05	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
11/05	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
06/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
24/04	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
19/04	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
06/04	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
28/03	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Muranga Seal vs Posta Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Muranga Seal win (42%). Probabilities: Muranga Seal 42%, draw 30%, Posta Rangers 28%.

How many goals are expected in Muranga Seal vs Posta Rangers?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Muranga Seal 1.31 · Posta Rangers 1.03), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Muranga Seal vs Posta Rangers?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.