Football · Kenya Premier League · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Kakamega Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars

Team pages: Ulinzi Stars

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Kakamega Homeboyz1.44

Ulinzi Stars0.77

1X2

52% 29% 19%

Kakamega Homeboyz Draw Ulinzi Stars

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Kakamega Homeboyz 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDLLLDDW

Ulinzi Stars 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Kakamega Homeboyz 2–3–1 Ulinzi Stars (6 last)

Kakamega Homeboyz0-1Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars1-1Kakamega Homeboyz
Kakamega Homeboyz3-1Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars0-0Kakamega Homeboyz
Kakamega Homeboyz1-1Ulinzi Stars
Kakamega Homeboyz2-0Ulinzi Stars

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kakamega Homeboyz 1493 · Ulinzi Stars 1519

	Kakamega Homeboyz	Draw	Ulinzi Stars
Our model	52%	29%	19%
Market	52%	29%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kakamega Homeboyz: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kakamega Homeboyz	Ulinzi Stars
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +7’	1.73	3.10	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kakamega Homeboyz 2–3–1 Ulinzi Stars

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Kenya Cup	Kakamega Homeboyz	0-1 HT 0-1	Ulinzi Stars
26/02/26 Kenya Premier League	Ulinzi Stars	1-1 HT 1-0	Kakamega Homeboyz
25/10/25 Kenya Premier League	Kakamega Homeboyz	3-1 HT 1-0	Ulinzi Stars
09/02/25 Kenya Premier League	Ulinzi Stars	0-0 HT 0-0	Kakamega Homeboyz
14/12/24 Kenya Premier League	Kakamega Homeboyz	1-1 HT 1-0	Ulinzi Stars
10/03/24 Kenya Premier League	Kakamega Homeboyz	2-0 HT 1-0	Ulinzi Stars

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gor Mahia	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	KCB	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Kakamega Homeboyz	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	Shabana FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	3K FC	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
6	Mara Sugar FC	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
6	Nairobi United	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Administration Police FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Migori Youth	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	AFC Leopards	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Bandari FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	Mathare United	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Mombasa United	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	Posta Rangers	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Muranga Seal	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kakamega Homeboyz	Ulinzi Stars
AFC Leopards	1-2 L	0-2 L
KCB	1-1 D	3-2 W
Shabana FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Mathare United	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kakamega Homeboyz

WDLDLLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Mombasa United Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
31/05	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
16/05	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
10/05	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
03/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
26/04	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
18/04	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
08/04	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	2-1	2-2	4	2	D
04/04	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	4	W

Ulinzi Stars

WLWWDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Tusker Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
31/05	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
23/05	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-1	2	0	W
13/05	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
09/05	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/04	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
18/04	KCB Kenya Premier League	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
04/04	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
29/03	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kakamega Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kakamega Homeboyz win (52%). Probabilities: Kakamega Homeboyz 52%, draw 29%, Ulinzi Stars 19%.

How many goals are expected in Kakamega Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Kakamega Homeboyz 1.44 · Ulinzi Stars 0.77), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Kakamega Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.