Football · Kenya Premier League · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Shabana FC vs Nairobi United

Team pages: Shabana FC · Nairobi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Shabana FC1.11

Nairobi United0.94

1X2

39% 32% 30%

Shabana FC Draw Nairobi United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Shabana FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLWDLW

Nairobi United 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDDWD

Head-to-head

Shabana FC 0–2 Nairobi United (2 last)

Nairobi United3-0Shabana FC
Shabana FC1-3Nairobi United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shabana FC 1485 · Nairobi United 1553

	Shabana FC	Draw	Nairobi United
Our model	38%	33%	29%
Market	39%	31%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nairobi United (rating 1485 vs 1553).
H2H favours Nairobi United: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shabana FC	Nairobi United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.90

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +24’	2.30	2.90	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shabana FC 0–0–2 Nairobi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Kenya Premier League	Nairobi United	3-0 HT 2-0	Shabana FC
04/01/26 Kenya Premier League	Shabana FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Nairobi United

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gor Mahia	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	KCB	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Kakamega Homeboyz	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	Shabana FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	3K FC	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
6	Mara Sugar FC	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
6	Nairobi United	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Administration Police FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Migori Youth	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	AFC Leopards	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Bandari FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	Mathare United	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Mombasa United	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	Posta Rangers	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Muranga Seal	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
18	Ulinzi Stars	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shabana FC	Nairobi United
Posta Rangers	1-0 W	2-2 D
KCB	1-2 L	2-2 D
Administration Police FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Kakamega Homeboyz	1-0 W	2-2 D
Muranga Seal	1-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shabana FC

WLWDDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/05	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
24/05	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
17/05	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
13/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
09/05	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
25/04	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
18/04	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/04	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
29/03	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	1	W

Nairobi United

WDWWWLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	KCB Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-2	4	1	D
31/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/05	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
16/05	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
06/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
25/04	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
19/04	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	3-2	4-2	3	2	W
08/04	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	1-2	2-2	0	2	D
05/04	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shabana FC vs Nairobi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shabana FC win (39%). Probabilities: Shabana FC 39%, draw 32%, Nairobi United 30%.

How many goals are expected in Shabana FC vs Nairobi United?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Shabana FC 1.11 · Nairobi United 0.94), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Shabana FC vs Nairobi United?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.