Football · Oman League · 19/10, 15:00

Prediction: Al-Nahda vs Sur SC

Team pages: Al-Nahda · Sur SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Al-Nahda2.09

Sur SC0.96

1X2

62% 23% 15%

Al-Nahda Draw Sur SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Al-Nahda 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLLWWD

Sur SC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Al-Nahda 4–2–0 Sur SC (6 last)

Al-Nahda3-2Sur SC
Sur SC1-1Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda4-2Sur SC
Sur SC0-2Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda4-2Sur SC
Al-Nahda1-1Sur SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al-Nahda 1553 · Sur SC 1472

	Al-Nahda	Draw	Sur SC
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	62%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al-Nahda (rating 1553 vs 1472).
H2H favours Al-Nahda: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al-Nahda	Sur SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.90

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.33▼	Pinn 1.34
X	3.90 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	6.00 → 7.00▲	Pinn 7.57 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +17’	1.44	3.90	6.00
16:05 +8’	1.33▼	4.50▲	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +47’	1.34	4.45	7.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al-Nahda 4–2–0 Sur SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Oman Federation Cup	Al-Nahda	3-2 HT 1-2	Sur SC
17/03/26 Oman League	Sur SC	1-1	Al-Nahda
11/01/26 Oman Sultans Cup	Al-Nahda	4-2 HT 0-1	Sur SC
03/01/26 Oman Sultans Cup	Sur SC	0-2 HT 0-0	Al-Nahda
29/10/25 Oman League	Al-Nahda	4-2 HT 2-0	Sur SC
07/03/25 Oman League	Al-Nahda	1-1 HT 0-1	Sur SC

Standings · Oman League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al-Nasr Salalah	3	3	0	0	6	1	9
2	Saham	5	3	0	2	5	5	9
3	Al Seeb	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
4	Al-Nahda	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
5	Al Shabab Seeb	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
6	Oman FC	3	2	0	1	3	2	6
7	Samail	5	1	3	1	4	7	6
8	Ibri Club	4	1	2	1	5	2	5
9	Fanja	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
10	Sohar Club	4	1	2	1	2	4	5
11	Al Musannah	5	1	1	3	5	6	4
12	Bahla	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
13	Dhofar	4	0	2	2	3	6	2
14	Sur SC	4	0	0	4	3	9	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al-Nahda	Sur SC
Al Seeb	1-1 D	0-2 L
Al Shabab Seeb	3-2 W	2-3 L
Bahla	1-2 L	1-3 L
Sohar Club	2-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Al-Nahda (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al-Nahda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Al Seeb Oman League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
05/09	Al Shabab Seeb Oman League	2-0	3-2	3	5	W
30/08	Al Musannah Oman League	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/05	Al Shabab Seeb Oman League	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
18/05	Bahla Oman League	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
14/05	Al Seeb Oman League	0-2	0-4	0	6	L
04/05	Al-Nasr Salalah Oman League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
30/04	Samail Oman League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
26/04	Dhofar Oman League	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
17/04	Sohar Club Oman League	1-1	2-1	5	2	W

Sur SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Saham Oman League	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
11/09	Bahla Oman League	1-0	1-3	4	4	L
06/09	Al Seeb Oman League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
31/08	Al Shabab Seeb Oman League	1-1	2-3	4	0	L
23/05	Sohar Club Oman League	0-2	3-3	3	3	D
18/05	Oman FC Oman League	2-1	3-2	1	1	W
12/05	Al Khaburah Oman League	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
08/05	Al Shabab Seeb Oman League	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
03/05	Ibri Club Oman League	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/04	Al Seeb Oman League	0-2	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al-Nahda vs Sur SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al-Nahda win (62%). Probabilities: Al-Nahda 62%, draw 23%, Sur SC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Al-Nahda vs Sur SC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Al-Nahda 2.09 · Sur SC 0.96), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al-Nahda vs Sur SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.