Football · South Africa Diski Challenge · 25/10, 09:00

Prediction: Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves vs Chippa United Reserves

Team pages: Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves · Chippa United Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves3.18

Chippa United Reserves1.18

1X2

82% 11% 7%

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves Draw Chippa United Reserves

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Chippa United Reserves 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 5–1 Chippa United Reserves (6 last)

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves3-2Chippa United Reserves
Chippa United Reserves1-2Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves4-0Chippa United Reserves
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves2-0Chippa United Reserves
Chippa United Reserves0-1Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Chippa United Reserves3-1Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 1572 · Chippa United Reserves 1413

	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	Draw	Chippa United Reserves
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	87%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (rating 1572 vs 1413).
H2H favours Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	Chippa United Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	0.9 / 3.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	0/43/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	0.8 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.08

X11.00

219.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.90

2 (+3)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:17 +2’	1.08	11.00	19.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 5–0–1 Chippa United Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	3-2 HT 2-1	Chippa United Reserves
04/10/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Chippa United Reserves	1-2	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
13/04/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	4-0 HT 1-0	Chippa United Reserves
07/04/24 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	2-0 HT 0-0	Chippa United Reserves
15/10/22 South Africa Diski Challenge	Chippa United Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
18/01/20 South Africa Diski Challenge	Chippa United Reserves	3-1 HT 3-0	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Standings · South Africa Diski Challenge

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	4	4	0	0	12	4	12
2	Sekhukhune United Reserves	4	3	1	0	8	2	10
3	Golden Arrows Reserves	4	3	0	1	13	6	9
4	Amazulu Reserves	4	2	1	1	5	2	7
5	Siwelele FC Reserves	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
6	TS Galaxy Reserves	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
7	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	3	2	0	1	8	7	6
8	Orlando Pirates Reserves	4	1	1	2	8	7	4
9	Kruger United Reserves	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
10	Milford FC Reserves	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Stellenbosch FC Reserves	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
12	Marumo Gallants Reserves	4	1	1	2	5	9	4
13	Polokwane City Reserves	4	1	0	3	5	7	3
14	Richards Bay FC Reserves	4	1	0	3	2	4	3
15	Chippa United Reserves	4	1	0	3	5	16	3
16	Durban City Reserves	4	0	1	3	2	7	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	Chippa United Reserves
Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	2-4 L	0-11 L
Orlando Pirates Reserves	0-2 L	0-2 L
Richards Bay FC Reserves	2-0 W	1-2 L
Polokwane City Reserves	3-1 W	1-1 D
Stellenbosch FC Reserves	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	TS Galaxy Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
04/10	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-4	9	4	L
26/09	Durban City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	4-2	3	2	W
09/05	Orlando Pirates Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-2	0-2	0	1	L
03/05	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
26/04	Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
21/04	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	3-1	6	3	W
18/04	Chippa United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-1	3-2	12	3	W
11/04	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
21/03	Marumo Gallants Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Chippa United Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Golden Arrows Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	2-9	–	–	L
03/10	Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	0-2	2	3	L
26/09	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-1	2-1	2	1	W
09/05	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-3	0-11	1	0	L
02/05	Orlando Pirates Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
26/04	Amazulu Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
18/04	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-2	2-3	0	3	L
12/04	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/03	Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
22/03	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves vs Chippa United Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves win (82%). Probabilities: Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 82%, draw 11%, Chippa United Reserves 7%.

How many goals are expected in Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves vs Chippa United Reserves?

The model expects 4.36 goals (Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 3.18 · Chippa United Reserves 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves vs Chippa United Reserves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.