Football · Saudi Arabia Pro League · 20/10, 20:00

Prediction: Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Neom SC

Team pages: Al-Nassr Riyadh · Neom SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Al-Nassr Riyadh2.18

Neom SC0.93

1X2

66% 20% 15%

Al-Nassr Riyadh Draw Neom SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Al-Nassr Riyadh 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLWDW

Neom SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Al-Nassr Riyadh 2–0 Neom SC (2 last)

Al-Nassr Riyadh1-0Neom SC
Neom SC1-3Al-Nassr Riyadh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al-Nassr Riyadh 1586 · Neom SC 1525

	Al-Nassr Riyadh	Draw	Neom SC
Our model	65%	21%	14%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al-Nassr Riyadh (rating 1586 vs 1525).
H2H favours Al-Nassr Riyadh: 2-0-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al-Nassr Riyadh	Neom SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 7.9	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.39
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.18 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.16

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:34 +3’	1.36	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +33’	1.38	5.09	6.03
18:43 +119’	1.39▲	5.18▲	6.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al-Nassr Riyadh 2–0–0 Neom SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-Nassr Riyadh	1-0 HT 0-0	Neom SC
08/11/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Neom SC	1-3 HT 0-0	Al-Nassr Riyadh

Standings · Saudi Arabia Pro League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	9	7	1	1	23	9	22
2	Al Hilal Riyadh	8	7	0	1	26	7	21
3	Al-Nassr Riyadh	8	6	1	1	19	7	19
4	Al Ittihad Jeddah	8	5	2	1	14	9	17
5	Neom SC	9	5	1	3	14	8	16
6	Al Ahli Jeddah	8	5	0	3	20	10	15
7	Al Ittifaq Dammam	9	4	3	2	13	12	15
8	Al Draih	9	3	3	3	8	9	12
9	Al Kholood	9	3	3	3	14	18	12
10	Al Hazm	9	2	3	4	10	13	9
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	9	1	6	2	6	11	9
12	Al Riyadh	8	2	3	3	9	17	9
13	Al Shabab Riyadh	8	1	4	3	9	11	7
14	Al Fayha	9	1	4	4	8	14	7
15	Al Faisaly Harmah	8	1	3	4	8	15	6
16	Al Fateh SC	9	1	3	5	7	17	6
17	Al Taawon Buraidah	9	0	4	5	4	16	4
18	Abha	8	0	2	6	6	15	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al-Nassr Riyadh	Neom SC
Al Khaleej Saihat	1-1 D	3-0 W
Al Ittifaq Dammam	3-2 W	0-1 L
Al Riyadh	4-0 W	0-1 L
Al Fateh SC	3-0 W	4-2 W
Al Hilal Riyadh	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al-Nassr Riyadh (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al-Nassr Riyadh

DWWWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Al Draih Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	3-0	10	2	W
12/09	Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-1	9	6	D
09/09	Abha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
05/09	Al Ittihad Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-2	1-2	14	6	L
28/08	Al Taawon Buraidah Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
25/08	Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-2	3-2	6	3	W
21/08	Al Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	4-0	9	0	W
15/08	Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
21/05	Damac FC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	4-1	6	6	W
12/05	Al Hilal Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-1	5	7	D

Neom SC

DWWLLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
10/10	Al Hazm Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
13/09	Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	4-2	11	3	W
07/09	Al Hilal Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
03/09	Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	3-0	3-0	4	4	W
28/08	Al Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
24/08	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
21/08	Al Faisaly Harmah Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	2-0	0	0	W
14/08	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
21/05	Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Neom SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al-Nassr Riyadh win (66%). Probabilities: Al-Nassr Riyadh 66%, draw 20%, Neom SC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Neom SC?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Al-Nassr Riyadh 2.18 · Neom SC 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Neom SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.