Football · Uganda Premier League · 08/10, 15:00

Prediction: NEC FC Bugolobi vs Express FC

Team pages: NEC FC Bugolobi · Express FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

NEC FC Bugolobi1.64

Express FC0.41

1X2

68% 23% 9%

NEC FC Bugolobi Draw Express FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

1-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

NEC FC Bugolobi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWWDW

Express FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLWLD

Head-to-head

NEC FC Bugolobi 2–2–2 Express FC (6 last)

Express FC0-0NEC FC Bugolobi
NEC FC Bugolobi0-0Express FC
Express FC1-2NEC FC Bugolobi
Express FC1-0NEC FC Bugolobi
NEC FC Bugolobi3-1Express FC
Express FC2-1NEC FC Bugolobi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NEC FC Bugolobi 1573 · Express FC 1481

	NEC FC Bugolobi	Draw	Express FC
Our model	67%	25%	8%
Market	68%	22%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NEC FC Bugolobi (rating 1573 vs 1481).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NEC FC Bugolobi	Express FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.6	2 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.00

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:33 +44’	1.30	4.00	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC FC Bugolobi 2–2–2 Express FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Uganda Premier League	Express FC	0-0 HT 0-0	NEC FC Bugolobi
31/01/26 Uganda Premier League	NEC FC Bugolobi	0-0 HT 0-0	Express FC
09/09/25 Uganda Super 8	Express FC	1-2 HT 0-2	NEC FC Bugolobi
28/08/25 Uganda Super 8	Express FC	1-0 HT 1-0	NEC FC Bugolobi
27/03/25 Uganda Premier League	NEC FC Bugolobi	3-1 HT 2-0	Express FC
03/10/24 Uganda Premier League	Express FC	2-1 HT 2-0	NEC FC Bugolobi

Standings · Uganda Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BUL FC	4	4	0	0	11	3	12
2	NEC FC Bugolobi	4	3	1	0	9	2	10
3	SC Villa	4	3	1	0	7	1	10
4	Blacks Power	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
5	Uganda Police FC	4	2	1	1	3	1	7
6	Entebbe UPPC	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
7	Lugazi FC	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
8	UPDF FC	4	1	2	1	2	2	5
9	Express FC	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
10	KCCA	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
11	URA	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
12	Vipers SC	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
13	Maroons	4	1	0	3	5	6	3
14	Kitara FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
15	Mbarara City	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
16	Kataka FC	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
16	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
18	Ntugasaze FC	4	0	0	4	2	11	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NEC FC Bugolobi	Express FC
Mbarara City	0-0 D	1-2 L
Lugazi FC	3-1 W	0-0 D
KCCA	2-0 W	2-0 W
SC Villa	1-4 L	0-2 L
Kitara FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
BUL FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NEC FC Bugolobi (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NEC FC Bugolobi

DWWWLLWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	URA Uganda Premier League	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
11/09	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
01/09	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	3-1	10	2	W
29/08	KCCA Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
23/05	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
20/05	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-3	1-4	3	6	L
09/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
28/04	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
24/04	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
21/04	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Express FC

LLWWDLLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
09/09	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
03/09	KCCA Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
30/08	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
23/05	Vipers SC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
19/05	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
12/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	3-1	3-2	1	4	W
08/05	Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
28/04	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	1	L
24/04	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NEC FC Bugolobi vs Express FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NEC FC Bugolobi win (68%). Probabilities: NEC FC Bugolobi 68%, draw 23%, Express FC 9%.

How many goals are expected in NEC FC Bugolobi vs Express FC?

The model expects 2.05 goals (NEC FC Bugolobi 1.64 · Express FC 0.41), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NEC FC Bugolobi vs Express FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.