Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 10/10, 22:00

Prediction: Yaracuyanos vs Barquisimeto

Team pages: Yaracuyanos · Barquisimeto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Yaracuyanos1.62

Barquisimeto1.45

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Yaracuyanos Draw Barquisimeto

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Yaracuyanos 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLLWWW

Barquisimeto 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Yaracuyanos 2–1–1 Barquisimeto (4 last)

Barquisimeto0-0Yaracuyanos
Barquisimeto0-4Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos1-0Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto2-1Yaracuyanos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yaracuyanos 1518 · Barquisimeto 1470

	Yaracuyanos	Draw	Barquisimeto
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	40%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yaracuyanos (rating 1518 vs 1470).
H2H favours Yaracuyanos: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yaracuyanos	Barquisimeto
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.5	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:18 +19’	2.25	3.25	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Yaracuyanos 2–1–1 Barquisimeto

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	0-0 HT 0-0	Yaracuyanos
24/06/26 Venezuela Cup	Barquisimeto	0-4 HT 0-3	Yaracuyanos
24/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	1-0 HT 0-0	Barquisimeto
29/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-1 HT 0-1	Yaracuyanos

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	29	19	6	4	51	22	63
2	Barquisimeto	29	15	8	6	52	32	53
3	Yaracuyanos	29	13	7	9	41	28	46
4	Urena SC	29	12	10	7	41	34	46
5	Zamora II	29	11	7	11	46	44	40
6	Atletico El Vigia	30	11	7	12	40	50	40
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	30	9	7	14	38	44	34
8	Atletico Barinas	30	9	5	16	50	61	32
9	Real Frontera	29	3	3	23	22	66	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yaracuyanos	Barquisimeto
Zamora II	4-1 W	2-0 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	3-0 W	1-1 D
Real Frontera	3-0 W	5-1 W
CD Lara	0-1 L	1-2 L
Atletico El Vigia	0-1 L	2-4 L
Atletico Barinas	0-1 L	2-1 W
Urena SC	4-3 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yaracuyanos

DWDWLLLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	4-1	0	3	W
30/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	1	0	W
26/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	8	7	W
19/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
13/09	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
06/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
02/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	4-3	5	6	W
30/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
14/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	6	D

Barquisimeto

WLDLWDWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-4	1	7	L
30/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
16/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
12/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
05/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	4-0	5-1	6	4	W
03/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
30/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
23/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-5	4	2	L
15/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	5-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yaracuyanos vs Barquisimeto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yaracuyanos win (40%). Probabilities: Yaracuyanos 40%, draw 27%, Barquisimeto 33%.

How many goals are expected in Yaracuyanos vs Barquisimeto?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Yaracuyanos 1.62 · Barquisimeto 1.45), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Yaracuyanos vs Barquisimeto?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.